Some analysis (hopefully useful for people)I think i did a fairly decent job of building the IRIS financials (i used Artis financials, and Cominar financials, and reconstructed what i think makes sense) reqiured a bit of slueth work and patching things together, but it is possible.
my estimate is, if you take Artis, pubco holdings and their Cominar holdings, they come away wiht $450M net, assume this is their equity holdings
i took a look at their retail, and their industrial, i would say, that on a whole, they are probably close to IFRS
the madison portfolio is likely decent, and the mid west portfolio is horrible...
so say, that they take a 30-40% haircut on that, and that is about $400-500M in equity loss for hte office properties as a whole
i come out with a fairly conservative value rante of $10-12...likley closer to $12
yes, it will take some time to get there
and he may not sell it all off, he may buy people out before he sells it all off
However, i've one into mico level details on the portfolios (building by building) and read the broker reports from the regions.
i think that $12 is a pretty fair long term price, especially if they are patient and the rates come down.
less frictional costs, and the profit required for a buyout, and i see $10 per share as the buyout value (win for all parties)
but realistically $9-10 is my range for the likley end buyout value - what i walk away with in the end
i'm getting "paid to wait" on this strategy, so i'm happy to let Samir execute while i get paid and accumulate more shares
i'll be a buyer all the way up to $8 ps with my dividends - once it hits htat, i'll likely just accumulate the cash dividends and wait for the $9-10 buyout
(like i did with Cominar, i got paid to wait and got bought out at the final buyout price, which was a win)