Will history repeat?
Bagelboys are full of crrap
10 year stock charts are full of clues
Go ahead- call it up on SH
in 2014 the stock was trading in the .25 to .40 range
in 2015, about 18 months before the Phase 3 results, the stock 4-bagged to about $1.20. In 2016, the Phase 3 results year, a second spike took the stock to $2.07 . But alas, that trial failed to meet the primary endpoint ( largely because, with the benefit of hindsight, they didn't zero in on the right target population - mainly EAA .6 to .9, but other after the fact discoveries as well) - and so it retreated rapidly.
What might those 2015/2016 spikes have looked like if they were exceeding expectations and had met the primary end point ? $5? $7? Higher?
Now fast forward to 2024. With either 18 months or six months to go. What could happen this time around?:
- Another spike in anticipation of the final results being released on the Phase 3b confirmatory, Tigris Trial?
- A spike that doesn't stop after a 4X to 7X move? ( see probability discussion)
- A bigger spike because results are now possibly well in excess of expectations due to better targeting ( think higher future revenues based on a much better AB ) ?
- A bigger spike because of the Baxter connection, a significant distribution partner that is well thought of by the FDA?
- A bigger spike because we have a world renowned KOL as CMO on board, who is also likely well thought of by the FDA?
- A bigger spike due to EDEN and many more HA studies conducted worldwide that could widen the label /use in actual practice ?
- A bigger spike because of the growth in: population, Sepsis, viral infections, metabolic decease, antibiotic resistant bacteria, etc?
hmmmmmmmm?!?!?!
MM