RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:AMD v. Polaris (WDTX case 1:23-cv-00304)Your advisor is correct that there could be some big settlements early on; AMD may be one of them. Assuming that the payouts are based on business in-house at Wilan at the time of the sale, there are three potentially significant revenue pots. - AMD
- MSFT/Google on the Stanford Siri IP
- Wired connectivity IP secured from Lattice Semiconductor
AMD now is settled. The amount is unknown. If it's material, a presser will be forthcoming in the near term. Prior settlements with major semiconductor licenses apprear to have run in the $15M - $50M range.
MSFT goes to trial on May 6th this year - if it goes that far. Add a couple of years for the usual appeal process if the case does go to trial. Wilan will need to agressive defend the ususal pre-trial SJ and Daubert motions. CAFC remanded Google to the PTAB to address inventorship. PTAB seems willing to let the district court in the MSFT action provide light on this he-said, she-said question of inventorship. My call: if MSFT settles, Google settles.
The wired connectivity campaign is just underway, so it could take some time. HP and Dell have shown to be more willing licensees in Wilan's past; I suspect that is why they were selected for the first litigation tranche. The wild card is the EU wired device standards mandating USB-C. This technology is well covered by the Latttice IP. The EU regs were to have been implemented last year but seem to be dragging.
So three years may be the window to fully realize all the earnouts. That time frame was mentioned by QTRH in discussion I've had with them. However, there wasn't a mention of rolling 12-month or 3-year cumulative revenue targets. QTRH has representation on the Owlpoint BoD suggesting that there may be nearer term milestones. I'd be somewhat surprised, and disappointed in QTRH's negotiation skills, if some of the $8 and $15M milestones didn't kick in sooner than three years. But we'll see.
I see the catalyst as more significant than $2-3M/year in dividends. So, I'll keep an eye on it and keep posting.
Apropos QTRH becoming a takeout target, are you really saying that reaching all the Wilan sale milestones and recognizing ~$0.30/share would trigger QTRH becoming a takeout trarget? I hope not; QTRH isn't behaving like a company that will be acquired and I think Rusty Lewis is looking for a bigger return on his 1,500,000 shares, mostly purchased in Q4. Acquisition is not on my radar until the stock price get into the $5 range. Homework, I think you need to double check your work on this point.