RE:Sorry folks - been preoccupied elsewhereGood to hear from you!
You have a vision for something that I cannot comment on (ATE & GUD). Amal is on ATE's board, therefore safe to say GUD is quite aware of what's going on there. If I had to guess, they're positioning themselves for different scenarios, and not counting too heavily on any of them to materialize.
I believe they're still looking to add something significant to Canada and/or Mexico before entering new territories.
I wonder's what the status of the Endo portfolio, by the way?
The undisclosed molecules are, I believe, a reflection of one part of GUD's strategy: "Develop near-term, low risk / low expense products." The 2022 Annual Information Form has some information on this part of GUD's strategy (sorry for the formatting, don't have time to start fixing it):
The Company’s branded generic development efforts include:
(1) internal development of branded generics for Argentina and other LATAM markets excluding
Brazil and Mexico
(2) in-licensing of branded generics for LATAM markets including Brazil and Mexico.
With respect to internal development of branded generics, Knight's focus is to develop new branded generic
products for Argentina as well as certain other Latin American markets. The development process of a branded
generic product is expected to be between 20-36 months depending on the complexity of the drug and whether a
Bioequivalence study is required.
The Company has three different manufacturing sites with the following regulatory approval status:
• HIV/General Solid/Respiratory Plant: ANMAT approved
• Oncology Oral Solid Plant: ANMAT, DIGEMED and INVIMA approved
• Oncology Liquid & Sterile Injectable Plant Oncology: ANMAT, DIGEMED and INVIMA approved
The ANMAT approval allows the Corporation to submit for regulatory approval, manufacture in Argentina and
commercialization of the pharmaceutical products in Uruguay, Bolivia, Paraguay, Ecuador, Chile and certain markets
in Central America. The DIGEMED and INVIMA licenses are for required for the commercialization of products
manufactured in Argentina in Peru and Colombia, respectively.
In addition to internal development, the Corporation is expanding its branded generics portfolio through an in-
licensing strategy. Since 2021, the Company has licensed a total of three branded generic products, for certain
LATAM countries, including Brazil and Mexico, which are in various stages of development. For in-licensed branded
generics, typically, Knight will own the marketing authorization and the trademark while supply of the drug will be
provided by the licensor. Under Knight’s license agreements for branded generic products Knight may be required
to conduct certain quality or bio-equivalence studies for its territories prior to regulatory submission.
Anything that's developed for Brazil and/or Mexico is therefore an in-licensed product in development; anything that's developed for Argentina is our internal development.
To comment on something else: I'm quite happy about GUD's current situation, it's easier than ever to see very positive developments in the future. Suggesting the MOH contracts continue (Samira sounded somewhat optimistic about this), we should be looking at decent growth for 2024 due to general market growth and some of our main products still growing at above market rates. Perhaps there's even some growth for Exelon. Then, 2025 should be our first true Year of Launches, which will give us a nice growth boost for the subsequent few years, at least. All the while the pipeline is being built for 26, 27, 28 to provide further growth for years to come.
And, of course, any new deal (which we have plenty of capital for) can immediately add to our revenue and bottom line. Should the financials develop as I expect, we should see a correction in the market valuation of the company in the not too distant future (impossible to pinpoint these things), which will give us another way to fund bigger moves.