RE:RE:RE:Divvy: not sure what's expected but likely between 1&2 cent Howdy Lurk,
The Maths that don't math, don't math because they weren't ment to math, which is the point of why they don't math. Congrats, you get a cookie for figuring that out, a big one, with chocolate chips!
So I don't fully understand your issue with my numbers but because all I discussed was debt and Free Cashflow I know it's on a FCF range I gave but where you picked out the "5-7M" because the ranges i gave were 4-10 for Q4 and 5-6 for Average Q in 2024... but I assume it's with the expected Q4 so I'll address that...
So I wasn't looking too deep to make a super accurate number for Q4 FCF, just a long range that you obviously feel is too low... and you might be right that I came in low as your numbers might be and are likely more accurate. Obviously your taking the 120-125 capital expenditure guidance, subtracting the 112 already spent and figuring on 8-"10"-13 million for the quarter. And working off that being reduced from the 36 spent last quarter and adding that to the 6.6 FCF from last quarter to predict your range of 22-28.. It makes sense and you might be right and more accurate than me.
I rather simply took the idea that they mentioned they were going to hit the upper end of the CapEx guidance, and the fact they mentioned that they were pulling forward a project they expected to complete in 2024 and that the pricing they got in Q3 would be lower for Q4 as we ran into a rut with pricing as oil dropped $10 instantly after Sept 1st and 7-10ish more for the last 2 months of the quarter, Nat gas dropped about 40% and I'm sure NGLs are priced down as a result also. Now a significant amount of production is hedged, but not all. If our production is relatively flat Q over Q that's fine, but our pricing on non hedged is likely over 25% lower, I don't know this for sure, I'm just guessing... so using these assumptions I felt that our range of FCF we may see is lower end of 4-10M... I did head maths to get there, so not overly accurate, but fully predicting that number was not fully the point of the post.
The point was that to go from 167.4 M to 145 million is 22.4 M in free cashflow they have to achieve to hit the upper limit of the dividend target range, your expecting they will do it, I'm expecting them to be 12-15M short...
I added on by thier own guidance, they have ' A focus on maximizing free funds (cash) flow' in 2024, and thier 'maximized' projection is 20-25 million for the whole year, which equates to 4-5M per quarter averaged as I stated, on a lower capex budget, with modestly higher production, and you see them earning as much or more FCF in Q4 than in all of 2024? Does that mathing math accurately to you?
I may be wrong, I hope I am and that your very right, but I dunno dude. I wanna see it.