FDR: moot points vs. bridging the gapNextLeg, you continue to do us both credit with your comments and questions. And I am sure the audience appreciates you too, judging by how fast you’re attracting eyeballs today. I love examining the motor that is FDR to see its inner workings. But for anyone sitting with paper losses on our stock my thoughts and contributions could seem increasingly irrelevant.
I’ll re-tool for this commentary. And I’ll see if I can be as respectful as you’ve always been. If I fail, I hope you’ll understand I mean no offence.
There is plenty of time to wonder what FDR’s grand strategy or even next tactical moves could be. There may be little time to prevent some recent FDR longs from losing heart and throwing-in their cards, should our share price decline continue.
So let us talk more about that. Because I’d hate to see anyone driven out – we all deserve to win on this stock.
I confess I’ve never before been so early on a play. This may be impairing my ability to offer useful insights. Usually, it’s me sitting with a paper loss, sometimes very big, wondering how I ever got myself so loaded up on a position and what for.
NextLeg, I’ve no idea whether you’ve got paper losses or just shrinking paper profits like me. But in any case, here is what I would want to hear from you right now, if our positions were reversed.
You say you are overweight FDR already. Compared to what? Holdings of other explorers? If so, which management group and property would you rather be backing?
Compared to owning capital-destroying gold producers? Compared to owning gold bullion and going slowly insane as the kids keep craving bitcoin, not understanding precious metals already *are* most of what bitcoin wishes it could be?
Compared to current tech darlings like NVDA and META? Holding stocks no one seems to love is psychologically much harder than holding stocks everyone seems to love. But which is more likely to give you a profitable trade?
Or how about holding cash, at 5% interest? Guaranteed… to lose out to inflation. Which in reality is probably a lot higher than 5%. Not that sitting in cash isn’t sometimes the right thing to do if great trades do not present themselves, though that’s probably even harder for speculators like us.
What some FDR longs are feeling right now may have its roots in our caveman brains from eons past. And no wonder. It was an instinct needed to survive. Then and now.
If the supply of venison in the tribe’s camp is visibly depleting, it doesn’t matter whether some members talk of a huge herd of wooly mammoths just over the next ridge, ready to be hunted. Fear of starvation is still a visceral pain in the stomach, and wrecks sleep too.
Evolutionary biologists talk of the courage primitive man needed to risk moving through dangerous valleys to reach better hunting in new uplands. Things might get worse for a while – or forever. But the payoff could be worth it, if you can get through that gap.
All my previous writing addresses (albeit indirectly) the reasons why the FDR price pullbacks are a pain to be endured rather than a critical warning signal. But ultimately each shareholder must decide for himself.
If you can come kill some mammoths with us, so much the better. If not, there is no shame in setting out down that road and then turning back. Owning a stock like FDR – even temporarily - is already more than 99% of people have the courage to do.