RE:Great article on k92The National article was referenced here on Feb 7.
i went back and reread it to pull out Lewins factual statements
while we await 2024 guidance (very late).
Here are the bullet points Lewins makes:
1.) Year 2024 will be biggest in history of company and mine
2.) Year 2024 also budgeted for the highest production with sales of gold and copper
expected to reach nearly k1 billion (kina converts to $270 million usd).
3.) The operating expenditure is expected to exceed k400 million (converts to $108 usd)
of which 60% is expected to be spent in PNG
4.) KNT also plans to spend k1 billion (again $270 million usd) on stage 3 stage
expansion with the construction of a new processing plant, expansion of underground
development and exploration for new veins
My comments:
1.) If sales (revenues) approach $270 million usd, this would easily exceed 2022 sales
at $188184 by 44%... we are awaiting 2023 final sales but I used 2023 9 month sales
+ analyst $62 million sales 4th q estimate for $186939 or same as 2022).
2.) If you read bullet point 3 above on operating expenditures, ... " of which 60% is
expected to be spent in PNG". Question here is why only 60% in PNG???
I hope analyst follows up with this question at end March full year earnings conf call.
3.) With a $270 million spending plan in 2024, this will be by far the largest yearly
expense to date. For short term investors, even with gold prices up, this may have
a dampening effect on 2024 earnings. However, if you can see over the horizon
to 2nd q 2025, the revenue should increase substantially but then they'll still have
to digest the stage 4 expansion. If you know this going in and the analysts
understand this then any speed bumps in the short term should be temporary.
in short, don't miss the 4th quarter earnings conference call in late March 2024.