Maximum uncertaintyClosest analog I can think of was the Brazilian tailings dam collapse.
I forget what the death toll was in the earthquake about a year-15 months ago, but far higher than today's tragedy. A lot of the earthquake deaths were attributed to shoddy construction by builders who paid "fees" to escape building standards. I have no idea what, if any, financial repurcusions have been felt by local builders.
Obviously, the difference here will be a foreign company seen as deep-pocketed. This is going to be very messy, very controversial.
From Mining.com Jan 24:
BHP (ASX: BHP) said on Friday it had yet to receive a formal notification from Brazilian authorities about a court decision sentencing it to pay 47.6 billion reais ($9.7 billion) in damage repairs over a burst tailings dam in 2015.
The world’s largest miner said the fine is part of a broader claim filed in 2016, seeking 155 billion reais (or $44 billion at the time) for reparation, compensation and moral damages in relation to the Fundo dam failure.
The Fundo dam, owned by the Samarco JV between BHP and Vale, burst in November 2015, releasing 39.2 million cubic meters of tailings waste into the Rio Doce Basin. It was Brazil’s worst environmental disaster ever, resulting in the death of 19 people.
BHP said this week’s ruling is interlocutory, which means it does not settle all of the issues of the case, as it refers only to the collective moral damages caused by the deadly accident.
It noted it would review the implications of the decision, as well as potential for an appeal and any possible impact on its provision related to the dam’s collapse.
In its 2023 annual report, BHP noted that it had earmarked $3.7 billion to cover issues related to the accident near Mariana, in Minas Gerais state.