In store in ‘24 on the weather side of FLYHT’s biz... part 2At the WMO (World Meteorological Organization) website there is a page with links to the histories of both the WVSS-II and Tamdar sensors. The WVSS-II timeline, dated June 29, 2021, is in slide show presentation format with notes. The Tamdar timeline is laid out in a single page in its own presentation.
Lead page here:
https://community.wmo.int/en/history-wvss-ii-and-tamdar-development Direct link to the slide show with contextual notes
here.
A few details from the WVSS-II timeline appear a few sections below.
What is missing from the timeline are more recent events, like FLYHT’s acquisition of the WVSS-II sensor technology from SpectraSensors which occurred in the fall of 2021. What is also missing is the publicly-stated intention of the UK Meteorological Office to get 30 WVSS-II units up and flying in the UK. Information on 13 of the 30 can be found in this press release from August 2023 re LoganAir installs on Embraer 145’s. The installs also include FLYHT’s Iridium Certus SatCOM and AFIRS Edge multi-channel WQAR for real-time data management and transmission. The host airline for the additional 17 units has yet to be announced.
https://flyht.com/investors/news-and-media/view/new-met-office-partnership-with-flyht-and-loganair-to-improve-forecasts-of-high-impact-weather/ And, there was this contract announcement from September 12, 2023
– “FLYHT today announced that it was awarded, through FLYHT’s wholly owned U.S. subsidiary, FLYHT, Inc. contracts valued at US$500,000, with an additional US$2.8 million in options, by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to provide its water vapour sensor technology (the WVSS-II) to help the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) improve weather forecasting and warnings. The agreement is an expansion of FLYHT’s long-standing relationship with NOAA and is recognition of the important role that aircraft-based observations (“ABOs”) play in improving weather forecasting and warning models.” The agreement provides NOAA with an initial package of FLYHT-WVSS-II sensors that will be fully integrated with FLYHT’s Certus SatCom and AFIRS Edge multi-channel WQAR for real-time data transmission. In addition to the hardware, FLYHT will provide ABOs throughout (each) flight, including during ascent, descent, and while en route. The initial hardware, funded with FY2023 appropriations, is expected to be installed before the end of summer 2024.”
https://flyht.com/investors/news-and-media/view/flyht-and-noaa-collaborate-to-improve-weather-forecasting/ This seems to parallel the contract work requirements NOAA has with Collins. FLYHT will be providing the hardware and will be the information service provider, too, for these new units.
I don’t believe there has been an official announcement yet as to who the airline or airlines involved will be, but in FLYHT’s January 2024 investor presentation there is this...
“
Installation of sensors and AFIRS Edge on WestJet aircraft; initial value of $500K, with the option up to $2.8M for additional aircraft. Installations to be completed in 2024”.
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How grand NOAA’s plans are for WVSS-II sensor deployment overall is TBD, but there was this statement in September of 2005...
“
NOAA/NWS/OST briefs SpectraSensors management that the ABO plan is to: • Target 1,600 sensors deployed systems on national and international routes • Model assessment will require 150 or more instrumented aircraft to have “economies of scale” impact from WVSS II (FY08)”
I read this as saying 1,600 sensors would be required to adequately provide the data NOAA needs domestically, and 150 units would be the minimum required to make a statistical impact. The domestic airspace would be extended to destinations frequented by commercial jets. For example, a flight from an American city to Nassau in the Bahamas and back would yield two soundings for Nassau (landing and takeoff) two for the area the jet cruises through and two for the American city.
As of 2021, 148 WVSS-II installations were completed. UPS, Southwest Airways and Lufthansa had 25, 114 and 9 respectively. With no change in NOAA’s intentions, that would leave 1,450 units to go. If anything, this number has probably risen.
I read into the order placed with FLYHT by NOAA last September as the taking up of the goal to put 1,600 sensors into everyday use. And I read into the order that the WVSS-II technology has stood the test of time and has not been superseded technologically (or the order would be for some other device).
1,600 for the U.S. alone could mean several thousand more for adequate coverage of the planet, and more for optimal coverage.
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The summary in the WMO slide show speaks to the slow rate of installation progress.
“Yet, with all the positive Technical Evaluations and documented Operational Benefits, there has been: • zero increase in ABO-WVM data levels from WVSS-II since mid 2017, either directly or via contracted Data Services • ...no other Regions/Nations doing sizable implementations in that time Missed Opportunities for ABO-WVM in Data Sparse Regions •less than 10% of the 2005 ABO estimated quantity has been implemented • less than 15% of (SpectraSensors) monthly production capacity of 10 units/month has ever been utilized, causing the factory space dedicated to WVSS-II to remain idle most of the time. Over the years the rate of WVSS-II implementations has been extremely low and has limited the overall sustainability. The original ABO objectives for implementations have not been met and the progress to that end appears limited.” This does seem to explain why SpectraSensors set the WVSS-II aside.
“less than 10%” confirms the 1,600 unit target. (148 is less than 10% of 1,600.)
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Timeline highlights...
1995-1999, WVSS sensor, using a thin film capacitive RH sensor, found to be unreliable.
1990’s, JPL develops the TDLAS sensor for detecting water vapour when exploring Mars.
2001, SpectraSensors (SSI) is founded to commercialize the TDLAS sensor for real world apps, including ABO WVM.
2003, WVSS-II sensor with TDLAS supersedes WVSS.
2004, Rev. 1 ready for testing and evaluation, FAA STC on UPS B757-200P.
2006, Rev. 2 ready for testing and evaluation.
2006, FAA STC updated to Rev. 2. EASA STC on Lufthansa A319/A320/A321.
2008, Rev. 3 ready for testing and evaluation.
2009, FAA STC for UPS B757-200P updated to Rev. 3.
2009, FAA STC for Southwest Airlines B737-300 updated to Rev. 3.
2009, EASA STC for Lufthansa A319/A320/A321 updated to Rev. 3.
2017, FAA STC for Lufthansa A319/A320/A321, achieved for Rev. 3.
2021 (date of the timeline slide show)
Total installs to date (per slide 7): 148.
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NOAA/NWS implementation through Public/Private Partnership Data Services contracts with Collins Aerospace.
- 25 B757-200PF aircraft at UPS Airlines
- 108 B737-700 aircraft at Southwest Airlines
- 6 B737-800 aircraft at Southwest Airlines
E-ABO/DWD implementation through contracts with Lufthansa Group.
- 9 A321-200 aircraft at Lufthansa Airlines
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In 2017-2018, as part of SWA’s fleet renewal, the older B737-300s were sold. The sensors were removed by owner Collins “
to be made available for subsequent use elsewhere”. “
With an appropriate contractual mechanism, those aircraft could very easily be re-equipped with WVSS-II and put back into service for ABO-WVM.”
Slide show: “
In 2021 Southwest Airlines began to retire their older B737-700 aircraft, 108 of which are equipped with WVSS-II. They are expected to complete this fleet refresh by approximately 2024/2025. Some of those aircraft may be resold to other airlines around the world, often in developing nations/regions. The WVSS-II units are owned by Collins Aerospace and can be expected to be removed prior to aircraft resale, unless other contractual arrangements are made by ABO members well before the sale. ABO and WICAP may wish to make contractual arrangements to leave those units in place to achieve ABO-WVM data services from wherever those aircraft end up, in support of ABO objectives.”
It does seem to be unclear from all this how many units presently exist overall, and where they all are at the moment.
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I would be remiss if I didn’t add this bit from July 2022 about the cost of traditional radiosondes versus the cost of using the WVSS-II sensor for ABOs.
“Based on the modeled cost estimates described in Annex 5, an “average sized” AMDAR programme (for example, 30 aircraft) producing only winds and temperatures can be established and operated at around 5% to 10% the cost of a radiosonde programme. While the addition of water vapour measurement complicates the management and operation of the programme, the costs are still estimated at only 12% to 20% of the costs of a radiosonde programme when the total costs are calculated over an operational period of 10 years. When reduced to the cost per vertical profile, AMDAR aircraft equipped with the second-generation Water Vapor Sensing System (WVSS-II) provide a cost metric of approximately $3/profile as derived from the National Weather Service (NWS) network implementation in the United States of America. This figure was estimated taking into account the operational costs paid from the budgets of NWS and/or the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and then divided by the number of profiles generated over the entire period. Compared to approximately $425/profile for traditional radiosondes, this provides a cost benefit ratio of ~140-to-1 from WVSS-II implementations over the recurring fixed cost of radiosondes.” https://library.wmo.int/viewer/51272/download?file=WIGOS_AMDAR_July2022_en.pdf&type=pdf Based on these cost benefits, the business of ABOs (Aircraft Based Observations) would seem to have a bright future, especially with the climate changing and extreme weather becoming the norm.
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