In store in ‘24 on the weather side of FLYHT’s biz... part 3Put succinctly, I believe FLYHT has a really good chance at winning the bid to be the information service provider to NOAA for “
continue(d) procurement of wind and temperature observational data from both the MDCRS and ADS-C sources of aircraft-based observations, and humidity from those aircraft equipped with WVSS” for the next five years.
Should NOAA take up again (as I expect it will) with its intention to put another 1,450+ WVSS-II sensors in the air over the U.S.A., FLYHT should see a pretty penny for the WVSS-II sensors coupled with FLYHT’s Iridium Certus SatCOM and either AFIRS or the 5G Edge to gather the data and transmit it in real-time. This would be over and above the five-year services contract for the existing installations, win or lose.
FLYHT has already made inroads into this same weather business in Canada and the UK. Germany, Australia and Singapore may soon follow. Other governments in Europe, Asia, Africa and South America will want to gather and use this kind of data, too.
I believe the model FLYHT is using, in which UK Met and LoganAir fairly split the cost of the equipment and installation, with UK Met getting the data it wants and LoganAir getting to use the hardware and SaaS offerings for its own purposes, this model will be used elsewhere. FLYHT’s take would be for the equipment and installation and then for continuous data services and SaaS for as long as contracted. Volume would allow for some price discounting.
FLYHT’s most recent investor presentation contains sales projections for the total addressable market of 25,000 commercial jets. Management lays out their projections in three categories: 5G hardware, Actionable Intelligence SaaS, and Weather Intelligence. The numbers are large. In the CEO letter, KJ makes a comment: “
(Weather is) increasingly looking to be an even greater opportunity than we had originally envisioned”.
https://flyht.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/FLYHT-2024-January-Presentation.pdf -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
FLYHT does seem to be moving away from the Tamdar sensor technology (acquired in 2018) for new installs in favour of the WVSS-II. NOAA, though, still buys and uses Tamdar data. According to the WMO, in May 2023: “
FLYHT currently collects data from 129 active TAMDAR-equipped commercial aircraft”. In instances where it is the Tamdar sensor already installed on a given airline, it might make more sense to use the Tamdar sensor for any additional installations for said airline.
(The PWS acquisition in 2018 included more than just the install base of Tamdar sensors and all other hardware and software that came with them. There was a team of people, too, as I recall. Not the forecasting division, but the operational staff and management. I believe they are still with FLYHT today, working in the U.S. office in Colorado. Meredith Bell notably
testified before Congress in 2023. I would think that having this team in place would have allowed FLYHT to pick up the WVSS-II from SpectraSensors with relative ease and confidence.)
This news release dated September 18, 2019 about signing with Canada’s ECCC makes a lot more sense to me now.
“
FLYHT and Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) have entered into a contract whereby FLYHT collects and delivers upper air meteorological data from Canadian commercial aircraft to be used for data quality testing purposes.” “In the first phase of the contract, valued at CAD$63,000, specialized AMDAR software (which measures temperature and wind on commercial aircraft) will be installed and run on FLYHT’s AFIRSTM Satellite Communication System, accessing information from the aircraft data bus and preparing specially encoded messages for transmission to the Meteorological Service. The estimated total value of the contract, including options, is CAD$166,000. The ECCC launches weather balloons equipped with a radiosonde, a package of electronics, sensors and batteries to capture weather data. This weather data is augmented by a variety of satellite and other data sources for use in weather forecasting. The AMDAR data collected by FLYHT’S AFIRS system provides additional key aircraft-based weather data which has been proven to greatly improve forecasting accuracy. AMDAR data differs from Tropospheric Airborne Meteorological Data Reporting (TAMDARTM) data. AMDAR data is collected strictly from sensors such as air speed indicators and temperature probes which are part of the aircraft when it is manufactured. TAMDAR is a sensor deployed by FLYHT that is purpose-built and installed on aircraft to capture additional environmental data such as relative humidity, icing and turbulence. “We are excited to see this partnership come to fruition and keen to see how our different real-time collection systems can make a positive impact,” said FLYHT’s Chief Executive Officer Thomas R. Schmutz, “FLYHT’s unique ability to capture, process, and transmit weather data in real-time should be very useful for the CCMEP. We hope to ultimately augment our services with the TAMDAR reporting system. This could supplement the overall weather balloon program, increase forecast accuracy and reduce overall program costs in the long term.”” A note about this: FLYHT only owned the Tamdar sensor at the time. The WVSS-II acquisition happened in September 2021. The WVSS-II can now be offered, as can be the 5G Edge.
FLYHT proved it could pull AMDAR data from an airplane, then process it and deliver it real-time with AFIRS (or the Edge). FLYHT can also pull integral data from the Tamdar and WVSS-II sensors, then process it and deliver it real-time with AFIRS (or the Edge).
FLYHT also has Panasonic’s FlightLink SatCOM system in its back pocket from the 2018 PAC acquisition. In 2016, it was reported that: “
PWS FlightLink weather sounding and tracking system is already in service on 35 Airbus A320 aircraft at Air Asia, and there are 250 aircraft in service globally with PWS TAMDAR weather sensors.”
All of this should help FLYHT mount a competitive bid against Collins this year to be NOAA’s information service provider when it comes to ABOs and the WVSS-II (see draft Statement of Work and Sources Sought documents referenced in Part 1 for more details).
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On a related topic, CEO Fernandes told media at the Paris Air Show. "
AirAsia also expects to have all 204 of its aircraft reactivated by the end of August (2023), and achieve 100% of pre-pandemic capacity in the coming months." AirAsia aircraft were outfitted with Tamdar and FlightLink years back. In late 2018, AirAsia and FLYHT were planning to outfit 190 planes with sensors, SatCOM and services. Nothing lately as to where this agreement sits.
https://www.aviationtoday.com/2018/12/13/airasia-flyht-agree-services-190-aircraft/