I'll repeat ...All gold miners are rentals...They are the worst...the absolute worst...possible business there is. Even at $2000 gold most of them can't make any money. They eat their seed corn. They plow back all the profits into drilling holes in a manic effort to tread water. They are not growth stories but cannibalistic stories. If you look at the big names, all their share prices are where they were a decade ago. A couple pay reasonable dividends but that's not a good reason to own them.
I've asked the management of companies like Artemis how they intend to cash out....they never answer. They almost always get a project up and running and then plow all the cash back into the ground trying to become bigger or add to the mine life. Some intend from the start to sell the company and that's fine but hard to indentify or calculate a buyout price. By and large they all suk....except...
For those windows of opportunity when the whole group goes stupid and the herd chases them to absurd valuations and the economic stars align. That's when you can make those multi baggers and it's why I even bother with them at all. When they fly they really fly...the rest of the time they only break your heart and take your money.
It's why I'm highly selective and highly price sensitive. You have to buy them when risk is high and prices are low and there's a clear catalyst for that to change. ARTG was textbook with a clear path to production and a top notch management with a clear plan to advance the project. I think TLG ticks the same boxes maybe more so.
New Gold will increase both gold and copper production over the next 2 years significantly and cut their AISC almost in half. That's not in the stock now...it will be
Skeena appears to be doing the same stupid stuff most miners do....spending millions poking more holes in the ground instead of building the project and returning the profits to shareholders...but it's cheap and will climb the Lasonde Curve until I'm out.
Crypto has taken a serious bite out of interest in gold at least in the West. Asians still love gold as do central banks but that's a Trillion $ that could have found its way into gold assets that wont until crypto collapses into the heap it deserves to be in. There will be a exodus from crypto again and a lot of that will find gold the next place to speculate and chase....that will be your cue to get out and ring the register
No one needs gold. It is not an "Investment" it's a speculation like crypto. If all the worlds gold disappeared tomorrow no one would shed a tear. Society can do just fine without gold. Gold miners are just rentals...trades....ticker symbols you buy cheap and sell to a greater fool when they lose their minds and chase performance and momentum. That day is coming again as it always does. The herd rotates from one casino game to the next as it's human nature which never changes. AI mania will bust just as the internet mania did...there will be winners and losers but the crowd will move on to the next shiny asset class as they always do. I bet it will be precious metals and the companies that dig it up
When and for how long the next mania in metals happens is unknowable precisely but rest assured it will happen. The whole group will rip including the junk and those who know that that party will end too will remember that they're all rentals
Don't bet the farm on this group...don't swing for the fences....shun risk by eliminating obvous problems such as most of the world geography....respect the Lasonde Curve, feasibility studies, price to NAV metrics etc and either buy cheap or don't buy at all....mining suks! If you can't get a $ worth of perceived value for 20 cents or less take a pass. At least then your risk is low and reward potential high. Know exactly how increased value will be recognized in the future. Don't get greedy. Buy slowly over time and exit the way you came in...you'll never buy the exact bottom and you'll never exit at the exact top. The 60% in the middle is fine.
Just rambling.....and accumulating 3 miners...slowly....patiently....and looking for the exit already even though nothing has really happened yet. It will.