Victoria Gold Corp VITFF

RE:Gold is up

[HoneyBadger77]

Reason gold is up and all gold stocks down today is because the market is waiting for the Fed speak tomorrow.

Even the world's largest gold miner Newmont's (NGT-TSX) little jump up at the open this morning saw their shares sell off despite the technicals which indicate Newmont is ready to run up any day now.  Newmont is reporting their earnings this week (Thurs - Feb 22) and is going ex-dividend in early March and so any good news tomorrow and Newmont will lead the gold shares break out.  If the Fed even hints tomorrow that they are going to commence rate cuts earlier than the market is anticipating, all Gold stocks will take off (even Victoria unless their Q4 and full year 2023 results don't meet expectations).

When I look at the major miners such as Barrick, Kinross, and Newmont and see the shareprice beat down they've endured with most trading at or near 52 week lows, it's no wonder Victoria Gold (along with most other golds stocks) can't get any upward share price momentum.  The good news is that most gold stocks have been been beaten down so much now that when interest rates finally do start heading down and the US dollar drops, we should see a significant move up in gold stocks generally.  The market is so focused on Fed speak it's almost laughable.      

United States Fed Funds Interest Rate (tradingeconomics.com)

Week Ahead - Feb 19th

Next week, investors' attention will turn to the FOMC minutes release, with traders scrutinizing any insights on when the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates. Simultaneously, the flash S&P Global US PMIs will offer an assessment of this month's economic performance. Beyond the US, attention will extend to flash PMIs for the Eurozone, Germany, France, UK, Japan and India. The Ifo Business Climate indicator in Germany, Turkey's interest rate decision, and Canada's inflation rate will also be in the spotlight. less

2024-02-16


Fed Not Ready for March Cut

The Federal Reserve kept the Fed funds rate unchanged at a 23-year high of 5.25%-5.5% for a fourth consecutive meeting in January 2024, in line with expectations. Policymakers added that they do not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the rates until they have gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%. During the press conference, Chair Powell said it will be appropriate to begin reducing rates sometime this year but the central bank will continue to make decisions on a meeting by meeting basis and he doesn't think a March cut is likely. Meanwhile, the Fed removed reference to further rate hikes from the statement, saying that the risks to achieve its employment and inflation goals are moving into better balance, but noting it would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of such goals. The central bank noted that inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated. less

2024-01-31


Fed to Keep Rates Steady, Hints on Rate Cuts Eyed

The Federal Reserve is expected to keep the Fed funds rate unchanged at a 23-year high of 5.25%-5.5% for a fourth consecutive meeting today, but the focus will be on any indications regarding the timing and pace of interest rate reductions in 2024. At the very least, it is anticipated that the central bank's policy statement will no longer retain its "tightening bias," which previously indicated a higher likelihood of an increase rather than a cut. This shift is largely attributed to the consensus among almost all Federal Reserve officials, who have expressed the belief that there is no necessity for further rate hikes. Meanwhile, the CME Fed watch tool points to a 44.7% chance of a 0.25 bps rate cut in March compared to 73% a month ago as recent data showed inflationary pressures are under control but the US economy and job market remain strong. less

2024-01-31