Ceapro Inc V.CZO

RE:There has been a complete loss of confidence here

[prophetoffactz]

fossi, "We are led to believe that AEZS has an enormously high cash position. However, this is only half the truth.In the report on the third quarter, everyone can read that the cash on hand is sufficient for the further development of AEZS's current pipeline until the end of 2025. How is this cash balance supposed to be sufficient to further develop the pipeline of CZO and PGX in particular?"

Cash on hand is one thing, fossi. Tell everyone how much Strongbridge paid AEZS upfront for the previous diagnostic deal adjusted for inflation. It's about C$40 million. They were also to pay US$5 million for pediatric approval and cover 70% of pediatric trial costs. With the pediatric trial expected to be enrolled by the end of 2023 those costs have been absored and AEZS can charge for them in a new deal. Then there are royalties and sales milestones. H.C. Wainwright's C$100 million market cap target is likely significantly due to the diagnostic test. What is reasonable? Gilles is inside AEZS and knows more than us. AEZS has also talked about potentially bringingin a partner for its AIM Biologicals program. The merger news release also talks about evaluating pipeline priorities post-merger. CZO can cut certain of AEZS's programs and direct cash into CZO's programs. We know in the least CZO's near-term revenue generating pipeline programs have been prioritized. 

What will the upfront, milestone and royalty payments be for AEZS's diagnostic test. Tell us what Gilles knows?

"Selvaraju opined that AEterna should easily and quickly find a new partner to replace Novo and may even negotiate a better share of Macrilen Dx sales revenue. The analyst expects the product to gain traction in Europe, too, given, he wrote, it is safe, is as accurate as standard insulin tolerance testing (ITT), and unlike ITT, it can prevent adult growth hormone deficiency overdiagnosis." 9/8/22 US Co. To Regain All Rights to Its AGHD Diagnostic Test (streetwisereports.com)

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AEZS's diagnostic test deal with Strongbridge was signed 6 years ago last month. Using US CPI to adjust for inflation the US$24 million upfront AEZS received would now be equal to US$29.39 million or C$39.7 million adjusted for inflation. That's just the upfront payment. AEZS was also to receive US$5 million upon approval for the pediatric market and to pay to support the pediatric clinical trial. The peiatric trial was to be fully enrolled in December 2023. There were also significant potential milestone payments linked to sales. What AEZS will receive for a new North American diagnostic deal remains to be seen as pediatric approval potentially looms this year; but Gilles is in a position to know the terms of the deals being talked about as a mamber of AEZS's Board of Directors.

prophetoffactz wrote:Tencents says: It was easy for Stonebridge to agree C71m knowing the US24 m upfront would never be paid...

 
"Under the terms of the license and assignment agreement, Strongbridge will make an upfront payment of $24 million to Aeterna Zentaris within five days of the effective date of the agreement." Strongbridge news release 

That's C$32 million alone upfront.

When its licensed this time it could also be with FDA approval for the key childhood market and with the pediatric trial costs, risks, and time to approval for the key childhood market in the past. Strongbridge licensed the test 3-4 years before expected pediatric approval. There was to be a US$5 million payment upon pediatric approval. That would be C$38.65 million.  

There was to be another US$15 million in payments tied to achieving annual sales of US$25 to US$50 million. Then there are the royalties that could be monitized.

• US$4,000,000 on achieving US$25,000,000 annual net sales,
• US$10,000,000 on achieving US$50,000,000 annual net sales,
• US$20,000,000 on achieving US$100,000,000 annual net sales,
• US$40,000,000 on achieving US$200,000,000 annual net sales, and
• US$100,000,000 on achieving US$500,000,000 annual net sales.