RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Peeking is very real. Of course !
Which is why the end result will be great despite the giant game of keep-away being played.
here's some extra things you might want to factor in to your Ebitda multiple analysis ( or rather Spectral's)
- What should the penetration rate be for a new SOC? Do Docs want to be sued for not applying it?
- Canada adds 10% to the EBITDA numbers based on population . Not included in the no.'s
- Look at the fine print of the EBITDA page. spectral is assuming only $6750 per cartridge. Independent analyses and even Paradigm assumes $7500. Add another 11% to those juicy figures.
- A high final ARR will push up both adoption and price ( higher than $7500?)
- factor in worldwide EAA use once PMX gets the gold seal of approval from FDA . >30 million Sepsis cases worldwide annually.
- factor in other proven, or to be proven, uses for PMX
- factor in expanded use ( both from label broadening and cautious doctors ( eg EAA >.55? >.50?)
- Numerous studies point to the benefits of 3 filters in some cases ( eg source of infection takes a bit longer to get under control) Another 10 or 20% to EBITDA numbers ( don't forget to compound all the likely growth factors)
- factor in increasing antibiotic resistance and more infections (estimates show 6-8% per year)
- factor in aging population and higher rates of obesity and metabolic disease.
- etc, etc. etc.
trust that Baxter knows all of the above
MM