I agree with quinlash - and like quinlash, I sometimes forget about the sophistication and market knowledge of some who choose to post to anonymous stock forums.
Cannabis was legalized for numerous reasons in 2018 - one of those was to eradicate the illegal/black market sale of cannabis (and reduce the related drug trade and other illegal activities).
For those who don't know, 'eradicate' means eliminate - not reduce by 60% and quinlash seems to have it backwards, with cannabis being the legalzied - the issue is not legal cannabis taking sales away from the black market, it's the black market taking away sales from the legalized sector.
Stay with me now.....
Canadian legal sales were estimated at $5 BILLION in 2023. If the black market has an additonal 40% - then the black market is taking away $2 BILLION in sales from the legal cannabis LPs such as Tilray.
If Tilray has the 13% market share (which is questionable) - what would an additonal 13% of $2 billion in sales mean to Tilray?
Additional revenue aside - Tilray has $250 million of cannabis inventory sitting unsold, how much would that be redcued if they had the extra revenue - rather than having to wite ANOTHER $100 million of inventory that eventually gets destroyed as unsold.
Common sense for those who have any knowledge of supply and demand - are also aware that the black market is attractive to buyers, not inly for quality that's just as good - but for PRICE. The black market (and over supply) had forced cannabis LPs to lower their prices. Lower revenues - with COGS remaining the same, reduce Gross Profit and increase Net Loss.
Over supply, over government regulation, competition - both legal and illegal - are major issues for the struggling, dead in the water Canadian cannabis sector.
To suggest that
"the black market is losing sales to legal cannabis. NOT the opposite." is simplistic and uninformed - EVERYONE knows that the black market is thriving, from government to cannabis LP boardrooms. The implication that it's not an issue - and suggest that legal side is winning the battle is nonsensical.
Comment by
quinlashon Feb 24, 2024 9:29pm 
98 Views
Post# 35897581
RE:Black market Losing Froubd
I keep forgetting to account for the math-challenged who post to this forum
If the BM is now reduced from 100 percent market share to 40 percent then, either through math, or common sense, we can conclude that the black market is losing sales to legal cannabis. NOT the opposite.