RE:RE:I agree with most of your post oldweed - but there is noslottygoddy wrote: AGREE. TILRAY HAS NO CHANCE OF BUYING AN AMERICAN MSO.
IF ANYTHING, IT WOULD BE A MSO ACQUIRING TILRAY. BORIS WOULD BE THE LIKELY ONE.
THAT SAID, THE BALANCE SHEET OF TILRAY IS A CONCERN. THEY CAN'T GENERATE FCF
Yep, the most likely scenario is Cura taking over Tilray. There also is the chance of a failing MSO, assuming no other tier 1 wants them, might provide Tilray a chance, but again if it's failing or not attractive to an MSO then it won't be helping the balance sheet of Tilray. The one thing for certain is Tilray will need to print a lot of shares, add to no path to protitabilty before 2025 and it all sums up to a questionable strategy and definitely to early to take a long position unless you believe in the craft beer segment. All producers have trimmed their operations except Tilray, they are behaving like Cura with expansion, but are in a much smaller and competitive market. There is a bright light for Tilray, they are forced to produce and sell at a much lower cost than the MSOs, so they could sell cheaper from the get go assuming the brand has recognition and can be moved through traditional alcohol distribution in the USA, but that's another big if. Another point, I could see Cura, or another MSO wanting their grow assets as they begun to restructure fragmented state by state grow ops. That time will come, but when is the big question. STZ did not see the value in keeping all the capacity of CGC, so that is a flag, as traditional CPG operations are usually separate from the farming side. Maybe only medical product will remain indoors down the road. Tilray needs to find a model that will sustain growth within the MJ sector, looking to sustain operations by entering another sector like craft beer is a band aid solution at best for the MJ business model they have. I have to ask, is it ego or stubbornness that is preventing Irwin from changing his model? Many companies have changed strategies to tune the MJ model. In Canada Hiti dominates retail, and they are critical to Tilray as their stores are full of Tilray products, will Hiti keep it that way in Germany and the US? It looks like no, as Sanity group has partnered with Hiti....probably a YS MSO will be in Hiti, or own it! OGI is in Tobacco and IP, BAT will own them as soon as the USA opens up. CGC is positioned better than Tilray now and has gone through the pain, but may be to little to late. There in lies my main concern, imagine if Tilray were to realize they need to restructure now, it would be the worst possible timing, I don't think they would survive. It is simply to late now imo, they are all in on Irwin strategy. You’ll have to believe in Irwin enough to put your money in Tilray and wait out the years, it would help if there was a dividend to do so, maybe Irwin can share some of that gravy Tilray is dising out!