RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:i count 8At 90 patients Tigris was 60% enrolled, at 105 patients Tigris will be 70% enrolled, at 120 patients Tigris will be 80% enrolled, at 135 patients Tigris will be 90% enrolled, at 150 patients Tigris will be fully enrolled.
Each of these levels represents a degree of confidence, a probability number, that tell you the odds of this ARR holding true all the way until the end results.
So say for example, Tigris is running a 20% ARR at 60% enrolled, there is a very specific degree of confidence number that the ARR will carry true until full enrollment.
At 105 patients (70% enrolled) running at 20% ARR, this degree of confidence/probability shoots up,
at 120 patients (80% enrolled) running at 20% ARR, this degree of confidence/probablity shoots up,
at 135 patients (90% enrolled) running at 20% ARR, this degree of confidence/probabilty shoot's up.
at 149 patients (99.333% enrolled) running at 20% ARR, this degree of confidence/probabilty basically goes to 100% because that last and final patient will have very little effect on the running ARR of the prior 149.
The biggest question in my mind, is at what confidence/probability level does Baxter feel comfortable firing off a billion plus dollars in their stock/currency??? Baxter refused to see the raw data, which was a very prescient move on their part in my opinion, but I guarantee they have a little bit more color than just 'exceeding expectations'.