BlueJays9293 wrote: All true
but the final milestone payment is a function of the ARR. That final milestone payment was put in place in early 2020 when the orginal distribution agreement deal was signed and has zero influence on today. So too, I dare say, any buyout would/should/could be a function of the final ARR as well. Why? Because ARR dictates what the market price will be for PMX. False, any final pricing/reimbursement advantages will be gained as soon as the ARR exceeded 11%, an ARR of 20% will retail at the same price as an ARR of 15%, get over it. For reference, chemo by itself, only improves your cancer ARR by 8%.
In theory, no one knows that figure until the raw data is run through the mill with the statistician geeks. This is what Baxter wants to avoid and kudos to them, your 'in theory' is naive. You don't need 'math geeks.' Show me the raw data and I could tell you the mortality rates of the two groups within 2 minutes or less, you don't want that, that can be constued as an analysis. And no one truly knows the final outcome until the FDA rules. I disagree, at 11% ARR the FDA will 100% approve PMX for ESS. At 100 patients, aka two thirds, aka 66.6666667%, Baxter will have pretty good info/probability on how PMX will unfold and FDA will rule. Things don't have to land on the round 10% interval because all those confidence numbers get continually updated with each tick. The higher the ARR at each level of enrollment, the higher the confidence/probability number because ARR can provide so much margin. A 20% ARR when you're only looking for 11% is like Irish Butter.
And a question I have is whether the final ARR numbers include the Euphrates numbers or just Tigris? God, you're just full of questions aren't you?? You'd be better off thinking about CAD versus USD in my opinion. Btw when AP and I were talking about things I was talking in USD, just so we are all clear.
None of this is anything that couldn't be agreed upon, should Baxter decide to " risk it " at say 98.57 % certainty based on raw data and their own " fellas" and "feelers"
Looking at data at 100 patients is exponentially better than looking at 90. In Baxter's wet dream they would have had the time to wait until 120 to look, but their self imposed Vantive timeline eliminated that possibility. We all know Baxter has their finger on the trigger, I think it's starting to twitch heading into Vantive, only the stars and the moon knows what will happen but that finger is looking really itchy to me.
Lastly, a contingency or multi-step buyout is a thing as well. Hey MM, pull my finger lol!
All spectralation, of course.
DYODD
MM