Up and down...Nickel and coal Up, Up, Down, Down: Narrative flipped on its head as struggling nickel, coal lead February gains
Commodity performance in February
The game is freaking cheating. All the metals everyone hates put in a decent February showing. Pic: Richard Bailey/Photodisc
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A turn up for the books: Nickel and coal the biggest gainers among major commodities in February
Copper, lithium and graphite remain steady at low levels amid hope a bottom has been reached for battery metals
Iron ore and rare earths come off the boil as Lunar New Year hits industrial metals hard
WINNERS
Nickel
Price: US$16,508/t
% Change: +6.62%
Well, well isn’t this a turn up for the books?
One of only two major commodities to record significant gains in February is nickel, the unloved child of the mining sector.
It has raised hopes the collapse of prices over the past year and resulting curbs to supply in Australia, China, New Caledonia and potentially Colombia could bring enough product out the market to avoid a major surplus, putting pressure on prices at current levels.
News in the sector was of course headlined by BHP’s (ASX:BHP) decision to write down its Nickel West business so hard it’s now costing the mining giant US$300 million to keep the assets on its books.
It will spend the next few months deciding whether to place the entire division on care and maintenance, risking over $3 billion of investments in a new large scale nickel and copper sulphide mine at West Musgrave on WA’s border with South Australia and a rebuild of its 52-year-old Kalgoorlie Smelter.
The issue, of course, is a flood of supply from Indonesia and technological advances that has seen its traditionally lower quality nickel pig iron output diverted through upgrading to nickel matte into the battery market, previously the domain only of established Western producers.
UP
The Australian Government is considering a proposal from the Association of Mining and Exploration Companies that would see $1.7 billion diverted from future budgets to fund a 10% tax credit to make local battery metals refining more competitive.
Prices rebounded in February after falling to under US$16,000/t, raising hopes that price support has been reached with BHP estimating over 50% of global nickel suppliers are losing money.
DOWN
BHP thinks the rise of Indonesian supply will see surpluses of 5% of global demand into the 2030s.
Indonesia’s new president Prabowo Subianto is likely to continue the protectionist nickel policies of his predecessor Joko Widodo, with a 15-year tax holiday still in place for refining operations.
Pic: LME
Nickel miners share price today: