RE:RE:Been in a yearWhat wti price are you using to get to this FCF of 500M for 2024. In q4 they were just shy of 300M FCF so if they averaged that same every Q then you would be at 1.1 B in FCF. So then at year end they would be at at about 2B and the following year end be at 1.5B. Under this scenario they would also buyback 10% of shares each year unless the share price really jumps.Q4 averaged about 77 WTI .Maybe I am wrong, show me the numbers!!!
Trader60 wrote: MJR
Agree, and no one can predict the way ahead, retail or instititutional investors alike (however, institutional investors have more tools at their disposal to try to figure this out, but look at NINEPOINT, the have been wrong publically about BTE on a number of occassions).
IMO it all depends on 4 main and interrelated factors affecting the SP, and there are many many other macro factors at play - the economy, the market domestically and internationaly, etc:
1. BTE managenent remains committed to the way ahead as outlined in their five year plan, and does not change course - paying down debt, purchase of shares etc.
2. The price of oil.
3. Investor sentiment towards O&G.
4. The unkown factor - CRA issue, weather, etc.
BTE managment has already sigalled in the most recent earnings call that Q1 2024 will be lighter than Q4 2023, while Q2 2024 should be stronger, and that about $250M should be removed from the debt in 2024 if WTI remains at the price that they noted in their management discussion for 2023. If that is true, BTE should exit 2024 with about $2.20B in debt. Still about $700M to go and 3/4 years to hit $1.5B and many many many more shares to purchase. If they repurchase 10% of the shares each year, when will they get to 600,000M shares - in 2027/28.
Given the above, IMO the SP should increase slowly over time. BTE IMO is a longer HOLD, and managment has signalled that as well, but eg. if management again sold some assets to pay down the debt, WTI spiked to $90, this could all change very quickly for BTE and shareholders.
GLTA