RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:finally... next steps..."You are not producing salt with a john deere and a bucket You need approvals then road work and crushers etc ."
yep, we'll have all approvals in place by the time the first shovel hits the ground. and if construction is starting first, then that's before "mining". starts
"The PREPRODUCTION numbers factor 2 % inflation which is low . The FS is 2029 BEGINNING of production with a 4 year spool up to 2.5 mts "
i thought it starts at 2,5 then ramps up to 4.0 w/ in 4 yrs. semantics?
"They have 10 to 12 million left now which is nothing as they need 450 million to get to production . No one is lending money without a huge chunk of the shares. If they could get lending without dilution they would take it private themselves
Wait and see but you are dreaming if you think this isnt going to end up with 10X the shares
"
need much more info; you may not be entirely wrong again. but i'm looking at the WBS for the numbers you supplied. The WBS is the schedule, so this is a rough calculation of spending as we go along. you can get pretty creative depending on the options to finance i bet. and if the government seems to be fully on board, i bet there are lots of opportunities to finance this.
table 21-3 - Escalated Pre-prod Capital Cost Estimates; Total is 480M? after 4 years, at which point you are @ 2.5 MT a year initial output?
Year 1 total is 218M. at which point you've hit the deposit and can start selling smaller amount before you hit the 2.5MT then eventually 4MT? i'm assuming at the end of the first yr you starting "mining":
if this was fully equity financed maybe all at once then 10x shares. but look at the Table 21-2 WBS capital costs. does this mean we need Mining Total = 142M and it talked about once we hit salt then it's being processed and stored and READY TO SELL! so by the time we're done spending about 142 million or thereabouts we're generating some decent money only to get better and better? does this sound right?
im a glass half full kinda guy ordinarily...
sorrenson wrote: Wow you just saved 150 million, The 450 million is preproduction , not 300 million unless you can build without engineering etc, EPCM engineering, procurement,
construction management is 70 million and Im thinking management might want paycheques too.
You are not producing salt with a john deere and a bucket You need approvals then road work and crushers etc .
The PREPRODUCTION numbers factor 2 % inflation which is low . The FS is 2029 BEGINNING of production with a 4 year spool up to 2.5 mts
They have 10 to 12 million left now which is nothing as they need 450 million to get to production . No one is lending money without a huge chunk of the shares. If they could get lending without dilution they would take it private themselves
Wait and see but you are dreaming if you think this isnt going to end up with 10X the shares
general360 wrote: You aren't entirely wrong. Yes, that's the costs and the schedule.
I believe the company has indicated that they're looking to shave cost AND time from this project. do you agree on that point at least? or do you insist that's the end of the discussion?
is it realistic to think the costs will be 50% less? i'd say no, but i don't know how conservative the FS is in that regards; plus, inflation is "falling", just was reading that 2024 is a great time to buy a new car as supply is easing which is leading to inventory buildup and therefore incentives are increasing by dealers. will that spill into the mining sector? maybe, maybe not. what is a realistic number to aim for cost savings? from 300M down to....?
same w/ time. is the FS soooooo conservative that any half competent suit can crash the schedule and reduce by 50%? prob not so either. but maybe it's realistic to say 20% cost and 20% time savings, i dont know, maybe others w/ more experience in mining can elaborate on what the expectation is.
HOWEVER.... what i kept asking about.. MONEY. when are we gonna make some money on this? maybe the answer comes from the EA just submitted. The initial filing says on pg84; section 2.6.2 "Construction of underground facilities". Righ after the initial box-cut: By the time we're at that point, what will we be worth? Financing should be in place, we'll be well under way w/ contruction, all permits in place. We might not even need full financing at that point since we'll be looking at another 1-2 years of construction, right?
from EA - pg84:
Following the development of the declines, the capital development will continue into the salt deposit. This salt removed during this phase will be stored in a designated pre-production stockpile for testing and processing
end of excerpt from EA.....
so, looks like we'll start making some money fairly early on in the construction phase. that's what i presume the offtakes will be selling. minor money, but we'll be making it. heck, it could even be significant money! and it should probably be an initial significant amount and a STEADY amount thereafter. i'd expect they keep pulling salt out of the ground throughout the construction phases, from 2025 right through 2029, and if that money is good enough for banks to start issuing DEBT, then we're off to the races and this isn't all doom and gloom waiting for 2029 (2.5MT?) or 2033 (3.5MT?). by 2033 if we're at "full capacity", that's about what 2.5-3 BILLION $ company? so 25-30$ SP.... less any equity dilution, which we're being told will be minimal (we'll see about that!)
g360
sorrenson wrote: Here is the capital cost and financial analysis . The plan is production begining Q3 2029 ( There is a comment say 2028 but all updated reports say q3 2029) and up to full scale of 2.5 mts by year 4 ( 2033) The theory is a 4 year roi so paid off in 2033
The issue is the 450 million required to get this built This is preproduction .They have 12 million at end of 2023 I presume substantial share dilution will be required to pull this off.
Capital Costs Economic Analysis