Clarity on US Banks Continued hyperbolic inflation will not allow the Fed to decrease interest rates in any meaningful manner. The major U.S. banks have balance sheets loaded with non-performing CRE loans. Office vacancies throughout major cities continues at historic percentages. Short term CRE loans are due refinancing at much higher rates, increasing the stress on their already stretched balance sheets. More bank failures are inevitable. Their fourth quarter earnings were already in the toilet. Listen to conference calls of the major banks like Wells Fargo to get a feel of just how bad the undercurrents are at present. Forget about the government coming to the rescue, too little too late as the damage will already be done.
Try and be your own historian. What happened in 2007 / 2008? Everything was fine until it wasn't. Same in general for all extreme market tops. Crashes occur when the majority is jubilant, overlooking the warning signs right in front of them.
Inflation is the punishing result to governments that spend too much over many years without ever reigning it in. This is what is happening now. Time to pay the piper his due.
Money can be made in the markets in both directions. One must not exactly time the market at the exact top or bottom if a plan is ready. But you do have to be prepared to act quickly.