RE:RE:RE:RE:CANADA INFLATION The jury is still out on the US. By my standards, Canada is in a recession.
Monetary policy takes a lot longer in the current market cycle because the economy is not as interest rate sensitive as in the past. For instance, the cyclical industries that are interest rate sensitive represent a less percentage of gdp than ever before. Recessions tend to happen after they cut interest as they did during the the GFC, dotcom and gulf war recessions.
The Fed policy rate was at 5.25% on June 2006 and remained there for 15 months with the first cut occurring by September 2007. The stock market peaked on October 11th 2007 which is 16 months after the last rate hike and a recession 2 months later. The stock market troughed 17 months after the first rate cut.
The Fed policy rate reached a peak on May 2000 with the first cut by Jan 2001 and a recession 2 months later. The stock market troughed 20 months later after the first rate cut.
The Fed policy rate reached a peak on Feb 1989 and the first cut began by June of that year. The recession began in July 1990. The stock market peaked on July 16,1990 and troughed 16 months after the first rate cut on Oct 11,1990.
Today, the Fed policy rate reached a peak at =~ 5.33% and has remained there for almost 8 months. It would not surprise me if the US enters a recession at some point this year. It can remain resilient for a number of months as the data above supports this view. The best remedy for curing inflation is ultimately a recession.
On a gdp per capita basis, Canada has been in a recession for 6 consecutive quarters. The media should be focusing on gdp per capita which tells me that the standard of living in Canada is declining. The immigration is to inflate the gdp numbers so they can continue to tell everyone that everything is just fine.