RE:RE:RE:RE:no idealashing wrote: LOL the old "priced in" argument. Nothing is every priced in until it actually happens. You said this before the last cut.
GXE is RISKY .. thats why no one is moving in big. There is a very good possibility the campany will indeed cut teh div completey, drive the share price to .15 - .20 and then go private on the cheap. Its happened MANY times before.
Since there is no interest from big fish they will get away with this without any problems.
Roscoe747 wrote: The current share price has the insecurity of the dividend built in. At the $C 0.64 price, the dividend is a bonus. It will take several quarters of structural demand improvement to encourage investor sentiment to improve and then to trickle down to the micros. In the last year, O+G has lost $5 billion in capital flow. While supply volumes appear adequate, any increase in structural demand created by unwinding of bank rates or increased export capacity will strain the current supply.
Gear has a flat, long term supply profile with minimal debt and steady cash flows and id well positioned to benefit from any structural oil price appreciation regardless of investor sentiment. The low share price is more a reflection of unchanging investor expectations than it is of changing marlet reality.
If we follow your premise to its logical conclusion, based on cancellation of the dividend and a share price fall to $0.15, the price to cash flow ratio becomes 15/26 = 1:1.73 or, effectively a yearly return of 173% on a cash flow or FFO basis. A screaming SELL you say?