Early April, spring time thoughts… Once again , I have read through the many posts here on good old ONC bulliten board.
Similar to washroom wall writing. Random name calling, put downs etc. All hiding Behind random handles etc.
i try real hard to separate the important news, information, data, prospects from the background noise.
bittom line on that?
Easiest way to get as much factual updates, is to go to the company web site.
Asside from the investor presentation. There is a plethora of study details, with peer reviewed data.
Not speculstion, not biased, just straight up results.
For those who are unaware. Most of the recent trial progress & resultant data, does not come from ONC.
The trial parameters are pre+ determined & validated & monitored by FDA or the hosts country equivalent.
The trials are managed at various institutions, within their respective medical experts.
The results when reaching certian time and or patient response milestones, get analyzed.
That analysis produces a preliminary report. The data & report then becones " peer reviewed", meaning others outside if the trial reviewing & giving an opinion on the validity of data & concluding results.
FYI, I was briefly part of a clinical trial. As a patient. Not to do with cancer. None the less , I withdrew for personal & clinical reasons.
My point?
I know a bit more than the average bear about clinical trials. I as previously mentioned know a lot about cancer.
back to Onc
I bought into Onc ( this time), when Brad T was replaced by Matt as CEO.
Very soon after , out if the blue the A.N. Licensing deal was announced.
The S.P. Then similar to now...dismal. The head & neck trial failed, leaving many discouraged.
There was zero, absolutely zero indication of price anticipation of a partership.
Then a whole lot if things happened in quick sequence. They announced the A.N. Deal. Did a 9.5/1 RS to get in the NAS & issued a bought deal, to fund things moving forward.
A further MBc partnership was expected, giving rise to the Sp, Granted post R/s the shorters had a field day.
They did get caught in a memorable short squeeze, Dec of 2019.
I will always remember that. Was in hospital E.R. Waiting many hours, watching the SP on my phone.
Speaking in Canadian $ the went from " about" $1 to over $6 on an afternoon spike.
The event, took about 4-5 trading days.
Yes there was expectations of phase 3 announcements. However much of the spike & its acceleration was a short squeeze.
Onc has been under a lot of price manipulation ever since.
Regrettably, instead of a phase 3 enrolment & partnership, bracelt & Aware-1 & Gobblet trials were initiated.
Some, get great joy blaming Matt and/ or mangement for the lack of progress.
Recall, at the time. The FDA & potential partners wanted do de- risk the phase 3. Looking for a determination biomarker.
the Aware-1, came through with that.
What also became discovered was A very important M.O.A. Building block.
It was previously thought that Pelareorep acted as a cancer killing agent.
in discovery they found it acted to help the body's immune systems fight cancer.
and
Would be best suited as a co- therapy with other exiting treatments.
Hence the recent Gobblet studies & results.
Cancer? Very complicated. Cancer treatments, even more complicated.
Grade school explanation
All of our cells are programmed to live. Cancer cells DNA, instruction set gets misaligned. Those cells grow fast & without original intent.
Yet to our immune system they appear normal. Should they be discovered, the immune system works on ridding the foreign cells.
the various in- place cancer treatments work on either killing the tumours or stopping them from growing.
That " treatment " diffulty? How to kill bad cells, while not damaging the good ones.
The " chemo" is very hard on people.
Does work in many cases if caught early.
However , what happens. The so called remission , evolves into a point of mastetic tumours.
The death. From that in general time lines is fast and evil.
why?
The immune system is tired. More importantly the cancer has disguised itself & not seen. The treatments become not much help.
Oncolytics biotech Pelareorep?
1. Only multiplies in cancer cells...it finds the tumours.
2. The Pela virus enables the imune system & other treatments to be more efficient.
3. Pela , unlike most chemo has very little effects on the health of patient.
The very recent Goblett pancreatic cancer results drive home a lot of useful insight.
The resukts were so good, it in very short order allowed FDA fast track designation & support/ approval from PAnCan.
Including a $5 million grant to try yet another co- therapy.
Mistakes were made over the years, in design of trials. Based on the assumption that Pela was acting as a single agent.
The learned data, even applied back to previous trials, proved the existing M.OA.
Both as helping treatments work & as a treatment to help immune system identify further occourence.
enough of the medical lesson.
Where is Onc now?
resding between the lines, they " potential partners et.al" are looking for over-all survival, numbers.on the MBc before proceeding with a trial design.
Their terminology was " excited about early signal, looking for sustainability"...see my overview above.
back to our BB chatter.
Anyone who claims " no deal so far, therefore no deal ever"...has no idea, what you are talking about.
A deal can & will happen , when the science solidifies the investment risk.on the part of aquiring pharma.
Mow much ? A parteship licensing deal is too wide & variable to specukate.
A buyout?
Right now, there are two clear sides. Onc management with a fuciuary duty to get the best price possible for the company.
They see results from various trials indicating a huge opportunity as a co- therapy & even as a wider cancer imunity booster.
That number previously was stated must start with a "B" , how many billions?
The other side up equation?
the aquiring pharma, needs to run a phase 3 trail, then assuming an approved treatement.
marketing & education of the medical professions. A very costly endeavour.
All before any $ of sales.
The profit? Huge. Manufacturing is in place with proven quality & manufacturing costs.
Two distinct moving lines.
1. what Pela is potentially worth ( that number gets bigger the closer to approval)
2. The aquiring costs & risk for the aquiring pharma,
" derisking" ?
I'm certain there are many who would be thrilled to hear about a takeover @ $500 million. aKA $7 PS.
however, knowing that number could easy triple, oncec Phase 3 is underway & showing good results.
Selling quickly for much less is not in the long term interests of shareholders.
assuming, this plays out & they get approval as a co therapy. Many billions.
company value at this stage can only be fully realized by data, proving a number that a pharma company can justify paying.
The recent studies & cotherapy with Roche are great.
The market SP does not reflect that at all.
One if a few things need to happen.
1.the SP will move up, to closer effect the true value.
2. pharma will take the comoany out.
3. trial results will be poor & justify the low SP.
looking at ALL recent trial results #3 is an option. However not likely & nothing indicates it should be.
so, enjoy the bargain pricing.
great upside.
my congrats to those who bought within the last month.
Hard to do with the full time FUDsters spounting non- stop negative noise.
again, that is their goal.
great week all. Stay healthy. Eat well, regular exercise.
Best treatment for cancer is not having it in the first place,P.
I hope my history lesson was helpful, or as a minium interesting.
again, & my disclaimer, everything I discussed is available on the company web site, or historical news releases.