RE:Peyto taking a page from Birchcliff...........Focusing so heavily on the spot price for NG is an off-base approach for this stock. The majority of Pey's products are presold using the futures market with only a minority of products sold at spot market pricing. When spot prices are down like now, Pey's realized avg selling price for products is considerably above the spot price. Likewise, when spot prices rally quickly, Pey's avg realized selling price for products lags behind spot prices.
In order to forecast future avg product selling prices we would need Pey's spreadsheet of product volumes presold and the presale prices. Then we would need to make a guess at future spot pricing so that we could get a revenue estimate for that portion of overall volume that is sold at spot. The combined total of contracted sales and estimated spot sales revenue would give us forecasted average selling prices.
Since Pey is regularly hedging, the whole exercise is a constantly moving target. This is why hyper-ventilating about the current spot price is not overly useful, IMO.