TD UPDATETHE TD COWEN INSIGHT Calibre reported Q1/24 gold production of 61.8koz, below our estimate of 65.8koz.
The company has reiterated is annual production guidance of 275koz-300koz. We believe the production miss compared to our estimate was largely due to higher production scheduled for H2/24, particularly as the Volcan deposit (near the Libertad mill) is planned to come online in Q4.
Impact: NEUTRAL Calibre reported production 61.8koz of gold in Q1/24, 6% below our estimate of 65.8koz. Production from Calibre's Nicaraguan operations was 55.0koz, largely in-line with our estimate of 55.4koz.
Pan produced 6.8koz gold, below our estimate of 10.4koz. Reasons for the weaker quarter at Pan were not provided; it was likely weather-related given the season, in our view.
Q1 financials will be released after market close on May 14. The conference call will be held on May 15 at 10:00 am ET.
As a reminder, we expect Calibre to release a full update on the Valentine development in the coming weeks, the first major update since the acquisition. As of Q4/23, we estimate that Calibre (pro-forma) had approximately C$150mm cash, C$245mm restricted cash (Sprott credit facility), with C$355mm remaining capex at Valentine.
We estimate total debt of ~C$356mm. After reporting Q4, the company announced a C$100mm bought deal (LINK) and US$60mm gold prepay (LINK).
Exhibit 1: Quarterly Operations Summary Source: TD Cowen, company reports Research analysts marked with ^ above are not associated persons of TD Securities (USA) LLC and are not registered as Research Analysts under FINRA rules. Research analysts registered solely with FINRA are not subject to CIRO disclosure requirements. Please see pages 3 to 7 of this report for important disclosures. TDSECURITIES.COM TD COWEN EQUITY RESEARCH Calibre Mining Corp. April 9, 2024 VALUATION METHODOLOGY AND RISKS Valuation Methodology Our valuation methodology may include two approaches: a relative value approach or an intrinsic value approach. Our relative value approach relies upon utilizing a blend of P/NAV and EV/EBITDA multiples, which we consider as the most relevant metrics. Our intrinsic value approach utilizes discounted cash flow (DCF) methodology as well as our sum-of-theparts NAV analysis, which values a company based on its mineral resources and selected balance sheet items. Mine plan, capital costs, and operating cost assumptions applied in our DCF are based on published technical reports, our best estimates using our experience and observations from other projects and information publicly disclosed by management. We make investment recommendations on certain early stage, pre-revenue companies based upon an assessment of their asset quality and upside potential, technology, probability of market success, and the potential market opportunity, balanced by an assessment of applicable risks. Such companies may not be assigned a price target
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Latley TD have changed how the report on companies. Not too impressed