td Guys I will tell you about a meeting I had with an investment advisor from royal today. He is an old friend of mine and i have known him for 20+ years. I had coffee with him today and one thing led to another. I started talking to him about TD and he told me his opinion. I know most of you wont believe it but i thought i might as well tell it in case some of you are interested.
he thinks td is significantly undervalued. It should be over $100 if this US AML issue wasnt around. however with that in mind he thinks it might a few years before TD can recover. Here a few scenarios of what i got from him. its very important to see what the US AML penalty would be. if its US$500 million - 1 billion that is a positive sign. he was saying that even if its US$2.5 billion that will also be ok and TD stock could potentially even recover 10% that same day. however if the penalty is higher like US$4 billion or US$5 billion or even higher like US$10 billion the stock will come down. easily 5% or more. He also thinks TD will have to spend a lot in the next few years on AML and that will affect their earnings. so even if its a positive news on AML it will still take time for the stock to recover to 100+ and he was thinking 2 years. however over 2 years TD will get through this and any penalty even US$10 billion can be paid by TD.
he was saying that TD is slow though in handling any matters and he doesnt think TD will resolve the US AML issue until September 2024 even. His opinion is that the markets are going to come down by June and thats when the Cad central bank will reduce their interest rates. he doesnt think US central bank will reduce interest rate till september even and that will the likely reason why market will come down as everyone is anticipating US to cut rates which he doesnt think will happen until Q3 of this year.
overall TD is a great stock but its dead money until they resolve the US AML part. it is most likely going to go down if markets go down and can even go as low as 70 if the AML penalty is huge. so tread carefully and buy what you can afford to hold.
i am hoping that all the buying of shares that TD has done work out for us and its good news. hopefully news turn out ok and we get in the mid 80s to 90 even by end of this year.