GREY:VITFF - Post by User
Post by
MVargason Apr 10, 2024 5:15pm
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Post# 35982180
My Take
My TakeI think it is possible that JM was not lying a few weeks ago when he said that Victoria had no plans for a financing.
I believe it was likely that this was an emergency equity raise to pay the mandatory $11 million debt payment on the Term Facility due on March 31. The financing was filed on March 28, just a few days before the due date of the debt payment. And yes, I know that flow-through financings are only eligible for exploration purposes, but I think you have up to 2 years to expend the funds - plenty of time to replace the loan, as it were, to make the debt payment.
However if JM was not lying, it does show JM's lack of awareness of the company's dire financial state.
I don't expect additional drilling at Raven any time soon.
The next shoe to drop will be the Q1 Financials in early May where VG will most likely report negative earnings per share with AISC well above the high end of the 2024 forecast range.
The biggest concern one has to have is the falling grade. The last 4 quarters it is has been 0.74, 0.65, 0.65, and 0.63. A disturbing trend; Q1 was not a one-off occurance. Remember the reserve grade is 0.65g/t but the first 3 years of operation the stacked ore grade was > 0.80. You would think that eventually the stacked grade has to average 0.65.
So even if operations are able to increase the volume of stacked ore on the HLP to something approaching 3 million tonnes in Q2, the actual gold ounces contained in that ore may not be as great as Q2 of 2023 if the ore grade is significantly lower than last year's 0.74 g/t.
Another factor that will impact Q2 gold production is the lower residual ounces recovered from the delayed leaching process from fewer ounces stacked on the HLP in Q1.
If Q2 2024 production is less than Q2 2023, it will be interpreted by the market as yet another "over-promise and under-deliver." of the 2024 guidance.
I know many will be thinking that this is a biased opinion because I no longer own shares, but just be aware of the risks and act accordingly. Believe me, I am not looking to get back in.
It would be a shame to miss out on this gold bull market.
My opinion only, but as HB likes to say, DYODD.