RE:RE:My Views on Recent Share Price Action Agree. Your money, your decisions. My money, my decisions.
Re. a "balanced approach". Seems like for many in here who are current shareholders (excluding you as you seem to be the most rational of the group), one can't be bullish enough on this name at this point in the company's life. Conversely, if someone like me makes arguments for waiting to see how management handles the early stages of the pre-construction process before deciding whether to invest, I'm told I should be more "balanced". I've already stated in previous posts that this project has a lot of potential and believe me, I wouldn't be interested in investing in TLG at all if it wasn't for their impressive MRE, safe jurisdiction / Quebec-friendly relationship, etc. My issue is it's too early to tell whether this company will ultimately achieve success, and I simply outline my reasons for my position on this name.
It's not just about the FS. It's about sound execution of the financing / contracting / (Fed) permitting process post FS. MOZ is a company that got hit hard post FS, not because the project wasn't a good one, but rather because they fumbled the post FS process. If TLG wants their JV partner to take over the operation, fine, but the more work that partner has to do, the less of a cut TLG shareholders are going to get. If TLG takes the lead on the mine build with the JV partner simply exchanging cash for say, 50% ownership in the project (or whatever the % is), it's even more critical that JR is able to navigate this post FS process on time and on budget. If not, who knows where the share price ends up...? To date, JR hasn't convinced me that he'll be able to steer the ship well, so I want to see both the FS itself and his progress (or lack thereof) as time moves forward post-FS. I think that's pretty "balanced".
Finally, agree the Lassonde Curve isn't bulletproof and there can be exceptions, but it's uncommon that a company's share price does well during the financing / contracting / permitting phase of the life of a mine build as there's a lot of uncertainty. Now, if the gold price continues its boom, this could be one of those exceptions. That said, in almost every case, if the investment community sees management struggle in fully financing the project on good terms, discover that contracting / rental / building materials costs will be more expensive than estimated in the FS and require more money, and/or see the Fed permitting process develop snags / delays, I don't think it's hard to envision such scenarios resulting in the share price being punished, and to date, JR hasn't struck me as a CEO that can adhere to timelines or be upfront with investors on things such as the current financial state of the company (see previous post on the surprise late October equity raise).
Regardless, it'll be fun to see how things progress.