High oil and gold precede recessions If the US is serious about getting back to 2% inflation they will have to cause a recession to do it. The latest rally in oil and gold are warning signs that a recession may be near. In the past, there are usually exogenous factors that kill the economy. In 2008, it was high oil prices and a housing bubble. In the dotcom era it was the tech bubble. In the Gulf War recession we had a steep rise in the price of oil as well as the savings and loans crisis. What I've found is that oil prices peak just at the start of a recession and plummet when the recession is underway.
This time around we have a commercial real estate crisis, high oil prices and inflation that is reigniting. If interest rates remain elevated for longer and wars that are happening left right and centre, I would argue that it's not looking good. A recession could arrive before years end. It might have already started if only the data were not compromised.