Africa Oil Corp. T.AOI

RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:JUST SOLD MY FIRST AOI IN 12 YEARS FOR MORE CPKC

[hikari]

Suppe11 wrote:

Ferryboy wrote:
I am now completely out of AOI as of this week .. all those "catalysts" we had going 2 years ago amounted to nothing for the share price and the Venus etc payoff is a long way off .. dead money for a while.  Plus an incredible reluctance from management to get serious with the return of capital program .. they are doing the absolute minimum

I moved to another oil stock that I think has a lot more torque in the short to medium term.

I will keep an eye on AOI and may come back in if I see the situation change but I am not holding my breath

GLTA

FB

I think you showed the problem, the management didn't get. They sit there with their freebie shares getting too fat salaries and can fabulate about billions they're going to make in 2035.
They were so proud of that "unheard of" deal with Total and thought it was the Nara drill, that killed the sp, while it was the "fantastic deal" they made.

I guess the average investor in Aoi is older, than 20 years and not everyone invests for his heirs. So while I agree with them, that the Venus deal is probably a nice one in 10 years...it's roughly worth zero today and I can't blame the market to discount the value to zero today...it's zero for me too (today).

If I would be the Ceo, here's my instant to-do-list:

1) Integrate the whole boards (Afe, Aoi, Prime, Impact, Eog) into one...it would be probably worth a synergy of $100m a year...if they don't want...liquidate/unwind/strangle/starve or sell them.

2) You rob Peter to pay Paul and rub the Primedebtor. Finish this. Why keep useless debt on the Prime Level and pay...40-50m p.a. for it + stand-by ? Makes zero sense.

3) "We got a fantastic team"...blabla...you don't even have an operational business. Cut it to bone and leave the breakfast directors and figureheads behind.

4) Make a real choice (both would be ok for me): Either big divi OR big buyback. Both small is cannibalizing the effect of both = waste of time and ressources. 
OR
Pay back all debt and build a gigantic warchest (no matter, what your whining investors demand) and go big (= next level/league) in the next cyclical oil low buying distressed assets (That's the real and only way empires are build, btw.).

5) Regarding Sbc and Options....tie them to corporate success. It's no corporate success, if the oil price lifts your sp. It's a coporate success, if you raise the book value with smart management. It's a success, if you buy an asset for 100m and sell it for 200m f.e..

That should do it...result would be: nobrainer $4+ sp....

I agree 100% with this analysis.

AOI (Tucker) is preserving, consolidating and de-risking the current status, achieved during the Hill era,  which is good and important. Yes with this status AOI has a very good and comfortable basement with nowadays oilprice.

But it is not good enough to get a higher value, price for AOI. This current basement is priced in with one billion $ market cap (fair or not fair but ok in my opinion). That´s it at the moment. Where are the next steps for the next billions for us greedy and hungry share holders. Perhaps Mr. Tucker is/was the right person for this important consolidation of AOI, but perhaps he has not enough ambitions, or he has not enough ideas for the next growth steps for Africa Oil?

I assume Helios is the dominant share holder. I think some years ago they said they have the vision to create a big African Oil Company. I wonder if the Nigerian Helios boys still have this vision for Africa Oil.

I am afraid that due to the natural production decline of the Nigerian oil fields AOI will have only around 30.000 bbl/d again, when Venus oil production starts in 2030 or later (this big and complex offshore projects as Venus often need more time for execution than originally planned ).

Where is the concept for the growth of AOI?