CIBC: Pre-owned Biz Jet Sales Increase Pre-owned Biz Jet Sales Increase In Q1/24 --
Transportation & Aerospace Weekly
Key Points
According to the International Aircraft Dealers Association (IADA), the preowned business aircraft market saw an increase in sales in Q1 with 253
resale transactions, up from 239 in the same period a year ago. The quarter
ended with 248 aircraft under contract, compared to 206 at the end of 2023.
IADA also noted that 46 deals fell through during the first quarter, compared
to 53 a year ago, while 88 sellers lowered the price of the aircraft, compared
to 52 a year ago. The association continues to view the pre-owned business
aircraft market as healthy with signs of rebalancing after a very strong
2021/22.
Inventory is now returning to the pre-owned market, but it would appear
supply/demand conditions still remain favourable for sellers. BBD noted that
in Q1, the percentage of the total business jets for sale was ~7% for the total
fleet with medium-sized aircraft at ~7% and large-sized aircraft at sub-6%.
The 10-year rolling average is 8.5%. As a rule of thumb, below 10% is
viewed as a seller’s market. We would note though that in a survey of IADA
brokers, ~75% of respondents said they think the large and ultra-long-range
resale pricing will fall and inventories will rise over the next six months.
We also highlight a recent study commission by Airbus noting that the
average age of a business aircraft in the U.S. is 18.5 years old, although in
11 states, aircraft average 20 years or more. In addition, in a survey of
business aviation financiers and brokers, 85% of respondents said they
expect to see purchases of large, heavy business jets rise over the next five
years, while 99% said that demand for large and midsize jets is increasing
faster than other categories because of their range and capacity.
A tighter used business jet market bodes well for newer aircraft sales and
pricing. As well, an aging fleet should drive stronger replacement demand as
newer aircraft offer improved fuel efficiency, advanced technology and lower
operational costs.
Looking at business aviation flights in 2024, which we gauge to be a good
indicator of flight hours, this remains robust. Average number of flights
through to April 25 is down 1% Y/Y, but compared to 2019, business aviation
traffic in 2024 is up 33%. Net-net, we continue to see a number of industry
KPIs (key performance indictors) pointing to healthy business jet
fundamentals.