U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 5% to a 12-week high on Monday with the start of the higher priced June contract and forecasts for more demand than previously expected with an increase in feedgas to Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas.
On its first day as the front-month, gas futures 
NG1! for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 9.2 cents, or 4.8%, from where the June contract closed on Friday to $2.015 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) at 11:28 a.m. EDT (1528 GMT).
That put the contract up about 25% from where the May contract closed when it was still the front-month on Friday and also put it on track for its highest close since Feb. 6.
That would be the contract's biggest daily percentage increase since January 2022 when it jumped by a record 46.5% around the time the front-month switched from February to March.
Even though gas prices fell for a third week in a row last week, speculators cut their net short futures and options positions on the New York Mercantile and Intercontinental Exchanges to their lowest since mid January, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Commitments of Traders report.
In the spot market, power and gas prices in many states, including Texas, California and Arizona, have traded below zero several times this spring due to low demand, ample renewable power supplies and pipeline maintenance that has trapped gas in Texas.
In California, next-day power at South Path-15 (SP-15) (EL-PK-SP15-SNL) in Southern California fell to record low of negative $20 per megawatt hour (MWh) on April 26, down from positive $4 on April 25. That compares with the prior all-time low of negative $15 on April 5.
Next-day gas at the Southern California Border (NG-SCL-CGT-SNL) fell to $1.35 per mmBtu, its lowest since hitting a record low of $1.14 in June 2019, while spot gas at the PG&E hub (NG-CG-PGE-SN) in Northern California fell to $1.85, its lowest since July 2019.
In Canada, next-day gas at the AECO hub (NG-ASH-ALB-SNL) in Alberta fell to its lowest since October 2022 for a fourth day in a row.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 U.S. states fell to an average of 97.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April, down from 100.8 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record of 105.6 bcfd in December 2023.
On a daily basis, output was on track to drop by 1.4 bcfd over the past five days to a preliminary 14-week low of 95.7 bcfd on Monday.
Meteorologists projected weather across the Lower 48 states would remain mostly warmer than normal through May 11 before turning near normal from May 12-14.
LSEG forecast gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, would hold near 92.8 bcfd this week and next. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Friday.
Gas flows to the seven big U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants slid to an average of 11.9 bcfd so far in April, down from 13.1 bcfd in March. That compares with a monthly record of 14.7 bcfd in December.
On a daily basis, LNG feedgas was on track to rise from 12.2 bcfd on Sunday to a preliminary three-week high of 12.9 bcfd on Monday on signs that at least one of three liquefaction trains at Freeport LNG's export plant in Texas was exiting an outage.
| | Week ended Apr 26 Forecast | Week ended Apr 19 Actual | Year ago Apr 26 | Five-year average Apr 26 | |
| U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | +47 | +92 | +62 | +72 | |
| U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 2,472 | 2,425 | 2,048 | 1,842 | |
| U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | 34.2% | 37.0% | | | |
| Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2023 | Five-Year Average (2018-2022) |
| Henry Hub NG1! | 1.94 | 1.92 | 2.20 | 2.66 | 3.60 |
| Title Transfer Facility (TTF) (TRNLTTFMc1) | 8.84 | 9.17 | 13.49 | 13.04 | 14.39 |
| Japan Korea Marker (JKM) (JKMc1) | 10.33 | 10.43 | 12.34 | 14.39 | 14.31 |
| LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | | | | | |
| Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
| U.S. GFS HDDs | 56 | 62 | 89 | 96 | 91 |
| U.S. GFS CDDs | 81 | 73 | 59 | 59 | 60 |
| U.S. GFS TDDs | 171 | 135 | 148 | 155 | 166 |
| LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | | | | | |
| | Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month |
| U.S. Supply (bcfd) | | | | | |
| U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 97.0 | 96.3 | 96.6 | 103.1 | 95.0 |
| U.S. Imports from Canada | 7.1 | 6.9 | 6.7 | 8.2 | 7.8 |
| U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Total U.S. Supply | 104.1 | 103.2 | 103.3 | 111.3 | 102.8 |
| U.S. Demand (bcfd) | | | | | |
| U.S. Exports to Canada | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.4 |
| U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.8 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 6.1 | 5.4 |
| U.S. LNG Exports | 11.7 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 13.4 | 10.1 |
| U.S. Commercial | 7.8 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 8.4 |
| U.S. Residential | 10.1 | 6.4 | 5.7 | 9.2 | 11.8 |
| U.S. Power Plant | 28.6 | 29.8 | 31.3 | 29.1 | 22.7 |
| U.S. Industrial | 23.3 | 22.3 | 22.2 | 22.0 | 25.9 |
| U.S. Plant Fuel | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 5.0 |
| U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2.3 |
| U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Total U.S. Consumption | 76.9 | 71.2 | 71.4 | 74.3 | 76.2 |
| Total U.S. Demand | 97.4 | 92.7 | 92.8 | 95.9 | 94.1 |
| U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam | Current Day % of Normal Forecast | Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2023 % of Normal Actual | 2022 % of Normal Actual | 2021 % of Normal Actual |
| Apr-Sep | 80 | 81 | 83 | 107 | 81 |
| Jan-Jul | 80 | 81 | 77 | 102 | 79 |
| Oct-Sep | 82 | 82 | 76 | 103 | 81 |
| U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | | | | | |
| | Week ended May 3 | Week ended Apr 26 | Week ended Apr 19 | Week ended Apr 12 | Week ended Apr 5 |
| Wind | 21 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 15 |
| Solar | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 |
| Hydro | 6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Other | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Natural Gas | 35 | 37 | 37 | 37 | 38 |
| Coal | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 |
| Nuclear | 20 | 19 | 19 | 20 | 20 |
| SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | | | | | |
| Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | | | |
| Henry Hub (NG-W-HH-SNL) | 1.40 | 1.46 | | | |
| Transco Z6 New York (NG-CG-NY-SNL) | 1.05 | 1.32 | | | |
| PG&E Citygate (NG-CG-PGE-SNL) | 1.85 | 2.02 | | | |
| Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) (NG-PCN-APP-SNL) | 1.05 | 1.27 | | | |
| Chicago Citygate (NG-CG-CH-SNL) | 1.18 | 1.25 | | | |
| Algonquin Citygate (NG-CG-BS-SNL) | 1.07 | 1.40 | | | |
| SoCal Citygate (NG-SCL-CGT-SNL) | 1.35 | 1.70 | | | |
| Waha Hub (NG-WAH-WTX-SNL) | 0.40 | 0.86 | | | |
| AECO (NG-ASH-ALB-SNL) | 0.68 | 0.71 | | | |
| SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | | | | | |
| Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | | | |
| New England (EL-PK-NPMS-SNL) | 20.75 | 23.75 | | | |
| PJM West (EL-PK-PJMW-SNL) | 23.75 | 22.25 | | | |
| Ercot North (EL-PK-ERTN-SNL) | 110.00 | 19.50 | | | |
| Mid C (EL-PK-MIDC-SNL) | 32.00 | 25.00 | | | |
| Palo Verde (EL-PK-PLVD-SNL) | -17.00 | -0.50 | | | |
| SP-15 (EL-PK-SP15-SNL) | -20.50 | 4.00 | | |