Q1/F24 FIRST LOOK: IN-LINE QUARTER, STRONG FCF, BUT Q2 GUIDANCE DISAPPOINTS
THE TD COWEN INSIGHT
Q1 was a mixed bag, with GP and Adj. EBITDA generally in-line. FCF was very strong again, aided by another payables-driven tailwind (like in Q3/F23), helping reduce leverage to ~1.1x, and the quarterly dividend was increased by 50% to $0.015/share (~1% yield). However, Q2 guidance was modestly below expectations (by ~2.5%-3%) and implies a continued deceleration in organic growth and flat margins.
Event: This morning, Converge reported its Q1/F24 results. Conference Call: 8:00 a.m. ET (Dial-in: 1-800-836-8184; Confirmation #: 01139. Webcast link here).
Impact: MIXED
Gross profit and Adjusted EBITDA generally in-line. Q1/F24 gross profit was $175.3mm (TD: $176.2mm/consensus: $173.6mm) and Adjusted EBITDA was $42.2mm (TD: $43.6mm/ consensus: 41.3mm).
Organic growth continues to decelerate. Organic growth was 2.1% y/y on a gross profit basis, down from 5.7% last quarter and 10.1% in Q3/F23, and 4.2% y/y on a gross revenue basis (vs. 10.9% y/y last quarter).
FCF was strong yet again helping lower leverage. FCF was $97.2mm, aided by another payables tailwind (similar to Q3/F24) amounting to $68.6mm. Net debt fell to $185.0mm (from $265.1mm last quarter), resulting in leverage of ~1.1x (vs. ~1.6x last quarter).
Dividend increased; should limit share buyback activity. The quarterly dividend was increased to $0.015/share (was $0.01/share), with the higher dividend to be paid on June 6 to shareholders of record as of the close of May 23. The implied yield is ~1%, which is still amongst the lowest in the peer group.
We note that Converge has been very active with its NCIB, particularly following the Q4 release in early March. However, the increased dividend should limit share buybacks to ~ $28mm/year due to one of its debt covenants.
Q2/F24 guidance slightly below expectations. Q2/F24 guidance:
Implied margins of ~24.9% at the mid-point, in-line with recent quarters.
There was no mention of the F2024 guidance in the press release. F2024 guidance provided last quarter was:
Gross profit of $735mm-$760mm (TD: $750.8mm/consensus: $746.2mm).
Adjusted EBITDA of $185mm-$198mm (TD: $194.5mm/consensus: $191.0mm).