RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:potential catalyst tomorrow - May 9thDaneOddments wrote: Kognitiv I value at because I still do not understand what they do (I am not a smart man) and they seem to be in constant need of cash. Granted, the same could have been said of many venture capital stage investments that I wouldn't have understood or invested in that ultimately became huge successes, but I don't think Aimia should be investing further in cash-burning venture-capital stage entities given they are still cash-burning at the holdco level themselves. So while I really hope that Kognitiv works out, and I have no sense at all of whether it will or not, I am not counting on it as part of my estimate of NAV, which again I think is in the $4 to $5 range now. There is another public investment holding company called Urbana which owns various investments in Kognitiv and they publish a monthly breakdown on their website which shows that they value the Kognitiv common shares very lowly: https://www.urbanacorp.com/net-asset-reports/
Thanks for the pointer to Urbana. I didn't know they were invested in Kognitiv, and also wasn't aware that they published such frequent updates on their holdings.
Kognitiv has an enormous financial hole to dig themseles out of --- nearly $50m working capital deficit as of Dec 31 --- so I also value it at 0. I also have no clear idea of what they do, aside from being pretty sure a big part of their strategy is simply jumping on the AI bandwagon like everyone else. Aimia advanced another $1.5m since Dec and I hope they stop throwing good money after bad. The Q4 report indicates that terms for this recent advance are still being negotiated, which seems kind of odd.
I think the most likely outcome is that everything except Tufropes & Bozzetto gets monetized or written off and swept down the memory hole. I'm not optimistic we'll realize the current mark of $27m from Clear Media. They don't share any details of performance so it's difficult to evaluate.
I get NAV in the low $4 range, but this doesn't factor in any of the ongoing bleed, which is significant.