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Aris Mining Corp T.ARIS

Alternate Symbol(s):  T.ARIS.WT.A | CLGDF | ARMN | N.AMNG.NT.U

Aris Mining Corporation is a gold producer in the Americas. The Company is engaged in operating two mines with expansions underway in Colombia. The Segovia Operation is located in the Segovia-Remedios mining district in the department of Antioquia, Colombia, approximately 180 kilometers (km) northeast of Medellin. The Segovia Operations comprises four active underground gold mining operations, which include El Silencio, Sandra K, Providencia, and Carla. It has over 11 titles with a total area of 5,335.58 hectares (ha). The Marmato underground gold mine is located on the west side of the town of Marmato, in Marmato municipality of Caldas Department, in the Republic of Colombia, approximately 80 km from Medellin and 200 km northwest of the capital city of Bogota. The Company is also the operator and 51% owner of the Soto Norte Project, which is advancing to develop a new underground gold, silver and copper mine. In Guyana, it is advancing the Toroparu, a gold/copper project.


TSX:ARIS - Post by User

Post by tobinator01on May 13, 2024 9:19pm
309 Views
Post# 36037929

What will the next 24 hours bring?

What will the next 24 hours bring?I've been musing about the unusual trading behavior concerning Aris for several weeks.  Nearly every Gold miner I track was down today, but Aris was up 2.4% on combined Toronto/US volume of 1 million shares.  There is nothing in the last press release last month that should give investors excitment for an upside surprise in Q1 earnings.  Yet, on the earnings-eve, the stock rallies against negative sector headwinds.

Tonight I looked back over the last month for the returns of Gold, HUI and Aris.TO.  Gold is down 1.7% and the HUI is up 5.3%.  Aris, on the other hand is up 24%, or nearly 5 times the HUI over the last month.

24 hours from now Aris will post earnings as their communication black out will be over.  So why has the stock taken off?  Looking at the chart, the trade action has been a relentless push higher without correction for about 7 weeks in a row.  Stocks can and do this type of trade but there has to be a fundamental push or consensus anticipation of big news ahead.  I just don't see any.

It would not surprise me in the slightest that some friendly merger is announced with another miner taking out Aris at some premium.  The other miner would likely be one associated with Telfer, Woodyer or Giustra.  All of these primaries are wheelers and dealers.  From a suitor point of view, it is better to make a deal now before Aris likely doubles a year from now to catch up with peers.

I cannot come up with reasonable explanation for the Aris trade these last 7 or so weeks.  It makes sense to me that Institutional friends would be called upon to get the price to a point so that all Aris investors get on board for a suitor's premium.

My preference is for Aris to just execute per guidance, start Segovia production at the 300k rate in Q1, 2025 and let my warrants ride.  My second preference would be to have the warrants convert to the suitor's capital structure with the same terms and expiry.  The least desirable for me, eventhough would make sense for the suitor, is to pay fair value cash for the warrants and then cancel them.  A 30% premium bid on the stock at $6, would likely result in each warrant being paid out roughly C$1.50 each using a the stock's historic volatility of around 42%.  Any speculators out there could buy A series warrants for 50 cents tomorrow and see them the next day at $1.50.  Only if these tea leaves I'm reading prove out to be correct.

Who knows, maybe Colombia gave them the environmental permit for Soto Notre?  I believe the anticipated decision was to be late this year, but you never know.
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