RE:TD , like watching a car crash in slow motionOcalaman wrote: Thier next Q release next week and conferene call should be painful at best.. There are ZERO good outcomes at this point other than to watch and guestimate the level fo damage thye are going to incur. This level of doubt wil haunt them for a number of years and getting investor confidence back will be diffcult , if not, impossible. RBC has written choices they have is to sell Charles Schwabb holdings or issue shares and the downside price forecast is 56$ ( CDN) and this does not even address the growth limitations the SEC may place on them including ongoing supervision until they are out of the penalty box.
Several analysts have commented that the current share price assigns zero value to TD's US business. Let's say that the authorities, DoJ, SEC etc collectively levy a fine of $2B, which is the top of the range number being tossed around. To match your doom and gloom forecasts, let's double the number to $4B. So what? That's one year's earnings for just the US business!
I drove VW TDI vehicles for over a decade and closely followed the dieselgate crisis. There were similar horrendous futures predicted for the automaker. Fines in the US alone were almost $15B. Total damage across the globe almost $30B USD. VW today is selling more cars around the world than it ever did. And the stock has better than recovered. Rest is history.
Investors are a fickle lot with ample forgiveness built into the psyche to erase memories past . Give a Q or two of solid earnings and they'll storm back on the buy side.
I acknowledge however that your view is as valid as any other. It's a matter of perspective.
Cheers.