Nuvista Energy Ltd T.NVA

Nat gas weekly

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Market Highlights:

(For the week ending Wednesday, May 15, 2024)

 

Prices

Daily spot prices by region are available on the EIA website.

• Henry Hub spot price: The Henry Hub spot price rose 14 cents from $2.01 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $2.15/MMBtu yesterday. 
• Henry Hub futures price: The price of the June 2024 NYMEX contract increased 22.9 cents, from $2.187/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.416/MMBtu yesterday. The price of the 12-month strip averaging June 2024 through May 2025 futures contracts climbed 8.2 cents to $3.049/MMBtu. 
• Select regional spot prices: Natural gas spot prices rose at most locations this report week (Wednesday, May 8 to Wednesday, May 15). Price changes ranged from a decrease of $0.94 at Sumas on the Canada-Washington border to an increase of $2.81 at the Waha Hub in West Texas.
  • Prices in the Northeast decreased slightly from last Wednesday to yesterday, despite an increase in weekly average natural gas consumption, as temperatures increased toward the end of the report week. At the Algonquin Citygate, which serves Boston-area consumers, the price went down 9 cents from $1.73/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.64/MMBtu yesterday. At the Transcontinental Pipeline Zone 6 trading point for New York City, the price decreased 3 cents from $1.64/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.61/MMBtu yesterday. Weekly average consumption of natural gas increased this week in the Northeast, driven by a 19.1% (0.8 billion cubic feet per day [Bcf/d]) increase in the residential and commercial sector, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Temperatures in the Boston Area averaged below 50°F over the weekend, almost 8°F below normal, but ended the report week averaging 63°F, which is 4°F higher than normal. 
  • The price at the Waha Hub in West Texas, which is located near Permian Basin production activities, rose $2.81 this report week, from -$2.31/MMBtu last Wednesday to $0.50/MMBtu yesterday. The Waha Hub traded $1.65 below the Henry Hub price yesterday, compared with last Wednesday, when it traded $4.32 below the Henry Hub price. Net flows of natural gas out of West Texas increased 1.1% (0.1 Bcf/d) this week, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. 
  • Prices in the Southeast increased this week, driven by increased temperatures and increased natural gas demand. At the Houston Ship Channel, the price increased 24 cents from $1.67/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.91/MMBtu yesterday. At the Florida Gas Transmission (FGT) Citygate, the price increased 27 cents from $2.95/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.22/MMBtu yesterday. Temperatures in the Orlando Area averaged 81°F this week, slightly higher than last week’s average, resulting in an increase of 10 cooling degree days (CDD) and 33 more CDDs than is normal for this time of year. Natural gas deliveries to liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals in South Texas increased this week by 24%, or 0.8 Bcf/d, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. 
  • Prices in the West were mixed this report week. The price at Sumas on the Canada-Washington border, the main pricing point for natural gas in the Pacific Northwest, fell 94 cents from $1.51/MMBtu last Wednesday to $0.57/MMBtu yesterday. The price at PG&E Citygate in Northern California rose 14 cents, up from $2.47/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.61/MMBtu yesterday as planned maintenance on TC Energy’s Gas Transmission Northwest pipeline, which moves natural gas from Western Canada production areas to the California market, reduced capacity by almost 0.7 Bcf/d. The price at SoCal Citygate in Southern California increased 21 cents from $1.70/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.91/MMBtu yesterday. Total consumption of natural gas in the Pacific Northwest decreased 32% (0.6 Bcf/d) this week, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Average temperatures in the Seattle City Area averaged 62°F this week, an increase of 10°F from last week. Consumption of natural gas in the electric power sector in California increased 18% (0.2 Bcf/d) this week as CDDs increased. Average temperatures in the Riverside Area inland of Los Angeles increased 4°F this week, resulting in an increase of 16 CDDs and an increase in air-conditioning demand. 
• International futures prices: International natural gas futures prices were mixed this report week. According to Bloomberg Finance, L.P., natural gas futures for delivery at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands decreased 27 cents to a weekly average of $9.50/MMBtu. Weekly average front-month futures prices for LNG cargoes in East Asia were the same week over week at a weekly average of $10.46/MMBtu. In the same week last year (week ending May 17, 2023), the prices were $10.44/MMBtu at TTF and $10.62/MMBtu in East Asia. 
• Natural gas plant liquids (NGPL) prices: The natural gas plant liquids composite price at Mont Belvieu, Texas, fell by 1 cent/MMBtu, averaging $6.78/MMBtu for the week ending May 15. Ethane prices rose 6% week over week, while weekly average natural gas prices at the Houston Ship Channel increased 11%, narrowing the ethane premium to natural gas by 5%. The ethylene spot price rose 4% week over week, and the ethylene premium to ethane increased 3%. Propane prices, Brent crude oil prices, and normal butane prices were relatively unchanged, isobutane prices fell 1%, and natural gasoline prices fell 3%. 

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Supply and Demand

• Supply: According to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights, the average total supply of natural gas rose by 0.1% (0.2 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week. Dry natural gas production grew by 0.3% (0.3 Bcf/d), and average net imports from Canada decreased by 2.7% (0.1 Bcf/d) from last week. 
• Demand: Total U.S. consumption of natural gas fell by 2.1% (1.4 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas consumed for power generation declined by 4.8% (1.6 Bcf/d) week over week. Industrial sector consumption increased by 0.3% (0.1 Bcf/d), and residential and commercial sector consumption increased by 0.6% (0.1 Bcf/d). Natural gas exports to Mexico increased 1.0% (0.1 Bcf/d). Natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export facilities (LNG pipeline receipts) averaged 12.7 Bcf/d, or 0.4 Bcf/d higher than last week. 

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Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)

• Pipeline receipts: Average natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export terminals increased by 3.5% (0.4 Bcf/d) week over week, averaging 12.7 Bcf/d, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Louisiana decreased by 4.7% (0.4 Bcf/d) to 7.4 Bcf/d, while natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Texas increased 23.5% (0.8 Bcf/d) to 4.1 Bcf/d. Scheduled volumes of natural gas at the Stratton Ridge delivery location for Freeport LNG in South Texas on the Gulf South Pipeline increased 48.7% this report week from an average of 0.9 Bcf/d last week to 1.3 Bcf/d this week. Natural gas deliveries to terminals outside the Gulf Coast were essentially unchanged at 1.2 Bcf/d.
• Vessels departing U.S. ports: Twenty-eight LNG vessels (10 from Sabine Pass; 4 each from Calcasieu Pass and Freeport; 3 each from Corpus Christi and Cameron; 2 each from Elba Island and Cove Point) with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 102 Bcf departed the United States between May 9 and May 15, according to shipping data provided by Bloomberg Finance, L.P.

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Rig Count

• According to Baker Hughes, for the week ending Tuesday, May 7, the natural gas rig count increased by 1 rig from a week ago to 103 rigs. The Eagle Ford dropped one rig, and two rigs were added among unidentified producing regions. The number of oil-directed rigs decreased by 3 rigs from a week ago to 496 rigs. The Ardmore Woodford dropped one rig, the Permian dropped two rigs, and two rigs were dropped among unidentified producing regions. The Cana Woodford and the Eagle Ford each added one rig. The total rig count, which includes 4 miscellaneous rigs, now stands at 603 rigs, 128 fewer rigs than last year at this time.

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Storage

• The net injections into storage totaled 70 Bcf for the week ending May 10, compared with the five-year (2019–2023) average net injections of 90 Bcf and last year’s net injections of 93 Bcf during the same week. Working natural gas stocks totaled 2,633 Bcf, which is 620 Bcf (31%) more than the five-year average and 421 Bcf (19%) more than last year at this time. 
• According to The Desk survey of natural gas analysts, estimates of the weekly net change to working natural gas stocks ranged from net injections of 66 Bcf to 90 Bcf, with a median estimate of 75 Bcf.