RE:RE:RE:RE:I Looked At Lundin Group Of Companiespapaloapan wrote:
Not sure I see it the same way.
The historic opportuity to grab assets in Namibia was 10+ years ago, and AOI did just that, both directly and indirectly (EOG, Impact, Africa Energy). Today is the time to start harvesting those assets.
AFE was a major discovery, and has been mired in politics to get production and offtake. But it will come, or they will produce LNG offshore.
Venus was a major discovery, and planing is underway for production. You can argue about sell versus stay, or the cost of the carry, but it is a major discovery.
Plus they hold vua Eco a stake in some highly prospective licenses in Walvis Bay and a large stake c- driect and indirect - two recently farmed down and highly prospective licenses in South Africa,
3b/4b
And lets not forget that while they wrote down their interest in Kenya, this was thier remaining interest. They sold half of their interest which allowed them to buy Nigeria.
Am I happy with the share price, no, but neither have they been asleep at the switch.
I agree partially.
Yes, The early grab of blocks in Namibia was 10, 15 years ago and in my opinion Mr Hill did a good job in buying AFE, Eco and Impact shares.
But Mr. Tucker is oversleeping the final rush in Namibia. My impression is that Mr. Tucker is just a good administrator, derisking the existing assets and managing the natural decline of the producing oil fields (AOI had a peak production of around 30.000 bbl/d and is now below 20.000 bbl/d - this is not a real success story, isn`t it?)
What do I mean overseleeping the final black gold rush in Namibia?
AOI, Mr Tucker has the advantage of knowing Namibia, of having access to all this data, infos collected during decades. They had better data than anybody else when Total discovered Venus and AOI, Tucker should still have more and better data than anybody else, gained from the golden block (as Total is calling this block).
What did Mr. Tucker do? He only farmed down in the Orange Basin (Namibia and South Africa). This is not a very proactive approach and he is losing the early bird advantage from 10, 15 years ago and especially now.
What did Sintana do? Sintana was NOT in the Orange Basin 10, 15 years ago. Sintana acquired in March 2023 (!) some shares in Namibian Blocks around this golden block. Sintana is compared to AOI a very fast and aggressive mover and Sintana was rewarded with the discovery of Mopane, which could be 2-3 times bigger than Venus.And Sintana bought in PEL 79 in April 2024(!) . Within one year Sintana got access to 4 blocks in the Orange basin, which included the biggest oil discovery Mopane since 24 years globally.
And what did Mr. Tucker do during this one year. Farming down and watching passively the actions from Sintana during this year?. "Congratulation". It is not a sooo difficult job to farm down when you got assets like a golden block.
We can assume that the cheap days are over for the blocks in the Orange Basin and Kudos to the Sintana management, winning the last race there
Pherhaps it is now time for the last race for the blocks in the north of Namibia, in the Walvis Basin. But again I see a lethargic AOI management only, missing this last historical chance for entering respectively increasing the AOI share in the Walvis Basin with a small price for the ticket.
I think Mr Tucker is good for administrating the existing assets. So leave him in this job at AOI. But try to get a dynamic dealmaker with good foresight for the next growth phase of AOI. I think it could be a good idea, as somebody suggested here already, that AOI should buy Eco shares instead of AOI shares to increase AOI`s presence and footprint in the emerging Walvis Basin.