RE:RE:RE:ETG vs IVN Picky, I suppose we all have our suspicions about this question of who has an interest in ETG.
There is no real promotion or distribution. No brokerage or underwriter has the slightest interest. No institutional interest or trading - not enough paper or liquidity to allow a mutual fund or pension fund in and out in sufficient value. Management passes GO annually and just socks away every tranche they leech out - quite remarkable how there have been virtually no insider market sales for such a long period. My read is our management and directors intend to hold to the end of a long and bitter negotiation - and the rising metals market pulling up ETG by the bootstraps in the meantime has made that hold a much easier proposition.
There is no distribution, and apart from the barest motions of putting out minimalist NR's and regurgitating the skeleton Corporate Presentation it's pretty clear management has limited interest in promoting any distribution of the paper. The story is too convoluted and long, the Mongolian pond is a a poisoned one for retail small speculators who can pick junior copper plays in safer jurisdictions. Rio Tinto and Mongolia's "good cop bad cop" shenanigans have had the desired effect of shooing away interest. But still there is stout support and what one might call "special situation" interest from a handful of buyers who are having trouble building positions without pushing up price.
My own impression is the great gap between trading value, value in part based upon the suppressed valuation (old metals prices, no optionality premium for Rio and Mongolia to accelerate production and development, and especially this long-standing charade that Lift 2 is not continued much further North and exceedingly valuable, as we were told in 2006) and potential significant upward revaluation - has moved a substantial amount of the float into a "long hold" in numerous strong shareholder hands. This includes the unaligned minority in the trailer park - I've never met as many fellow shareholders of a little company with some fairly sobering special situation risks who state an absolute commitment to accumulate and not sell.
I wonder how many former management or related parties who fell out of insider status have continued to hold their positions as well - the course of the stock price after 2012 or so helped - why sell into a collapsed valuation for some, and for numerous others like me, double and triple down or more, as less committed traders walked - recall fairly healthy volumes under 60 cents for a long while allowed a fair bit of accumulation. Most of us old timers know of a score of long-accumulators who have acquired overweight positions and will not trade them. And I wonder about people like RF or Greg Crowe, former SSL insiders, IVN insiders, who might have just tucked away some positions, and now that they have shown some significant appreciation over the past two years have no inclination to sell while the upside potential remains unresolved and in the meantime the trading price is moving up on a healthy trend line.
Mongolia - who knows? Surely there was some domestic interest even if the field of buyers and holders would be limited by population alone - I asked Greg Crowe and he told me, many years ago, the shareholder register did not indicate any Mongolian shareholders. But that doesn't end the matter, as we know shares can held through intermediaries, trusts, offshore vehicles and nominees. And there were several million ETG shares given in consideration of the reverse takeover and completing the set-up of ETG prior to 2003.
What I see is trading patterns that show pressure from accumulation - look back over the past few years and a paltry 45,000 or so is the daily trading volume. On days where the volume rises above 100,000 shares the days are almost invariably good price gain days. Then we get paltry volume down days - yesterday and today look like they will follow the pattern. I don't think that is trading but accumulation, and the float shrinking further.
The company is almost in suspended animation and really, what an ill-fashioned vehicle a stand-alone public company has become for a passive carried interest that could be held as an asset by any number of holders as part of a portfolio in a company that put its public listing expenses to greater use.
The flies the ointment are valuation uncertainty and passage of time ... in reply to those who know my own situation who ask what price would I begin to sell I reply I don't expect to have to pick the price myself, and we remain so far below what I believe is current fair value I really don't care for the time being. What I call "an easy hold". My palms don't sweat until you start trading above the $2.50 range or so, when the overweight situation for me personally might start becoming pretty awkward and maybe prudence (and the fact I am getting into years I want to cash in some chips - it has been 20 years now!) would require some trimming.
Surely Rio Tinto and management will eventually do the inevitable and hammer out a price to hand to us as a fait accompli (assuming they know what will be acceptable to those valuation experts at HCU).
Then my prediction we never need to do anything but stand by and wait will have come true - the big uncertainty is like watching one of those carnival wheels of fortune spinning - x2? x3? x4? Etc.,.!,!!!
Out of my hands except if my votes would ever count, and that I doubt. But, you never know, maybe the excitement of a bitter and tight proxy solicitation is one of the last chapters?
cg