Nuvista Energy Ltd T.NVA

Nat gas weekly

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Market Highlights:

(For the week ending Wednesday, May 22, 2024)

 

Prices

Daily spot prices by region are available on the EIA website.

• Henry Hub spot price: The Henry Hub spot price rose 36 cents from $2.15 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $2.51/MMBtu yesterday. This price is the highest price at the Henry Hub since January of this year and two cents below the 2023 annual average. 
• Henry Hub futures price: The price of the June 2024 NYMEX contract increased 42.6 cents, from $2.416/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.842/MMBtu yesterday. The price of the 12-month strip averaging June 2024 through May 2025 futures contracts climbed 27.7 cents to $3.326/MMBtu. 
• Select regional spot prices: Natural gas spot price changes were mixed this report week (Wednesday, May 15 to Wednesday, May 22), rising in most markets from the Gulf Coast to the Northeast and falling in most markets from the Rocky Mountains to the West Coast. Price changes ranged from a decrease of 72 cents at PG&E Citygate to an increase of 57 cents at Florida Gas Transmission (FGT) Citygate.
  • Prices in the Northeast increased this report week. At the Algonquin Citygate, which serves Boston-area consumers, the price went up 39 cents from $1.64/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.03/MMBtu yesterday. The price at the Transcontinental Zone 6 trading point for New York City increased 40 cents from $1.61/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.01/MMBtu both Tuesday and yesterday, rising above $2.00/MMBtu for the first time since mid-February. Near Appalachian Basin producing activities, the price at Eastern Gas South in southwestern Pennsylvania rose 30 cents from $1.48/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.78/MMBtu yesterday. Temperatures in the Pittsburgh Area averaged 71°F this report week, resulting in 45 cooling degree days(CDD), 40 more CDDs than last week and 31 more than normal. Natural gas consumption in the electric power sector in the Northeast increased 20% (1.5 billion cubic feet per day [Bcf/d]), according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights, with the largest increase (26%, or 0.9 Bcf/d) being in the Appalachia region. 
  • In the Southeast, at FGT Citygate, which delivers natural gas into Florida, the price rose 57 cents from $3.22/MMBtu last Wednesday to $3.78/MMBtu yesterday. Temperatures in the Miami Area averaged 86°F this report week, 6°F higher than normal, which resulted in 148 CDDs, 9 more CDDs than last week and 41 more than normal. Temperatures in Miami set a record-high temperature for the day of 96°F on Sunday, 2°F above the previous record set in 1995. Natural gas consumption in the electric power sector in the Southern Corridor region, which includes Florida, increased 17% (0.4 Bcf/d) this report week according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. 
  • Price changes on the West Coast were mixed this report week, falling in California and rising in the Pacific Northwest. At PG&E Citygate in Northern California, the price fell 72 cents, down from $2.61/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.89/MMBtu yesterday, and the price at SoCal Citygate in Southern California decreased 69 cents from $1.91/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.22/MMBtu yesterday. Temperatures in the Riverside Area, east of Los Angeles, averaged 65°F this report week, resulting in 4 heating degree days (HDD) and 3 CDDs, 1 less HDD than normal and 24 fewer CDDs than normal. Natural gas consumption in the electric power sector in California decreased 30% (0.4 Bcf/d), according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. The price at Northwest Sumas on the Canada-Washington border, the main pricing point for natural gas in the Pacific Northwest, rose 21 cents from $0.57/MMBtu last Wednesday to $0.78/MMBtu yesterday, after reaching an intra-week low of $0.17/MMBtu on Friday. Temperatures in the Seattle City Area averaged 54°F this report week, 4°F below normal, which resulted in 75 HDDs, 53 more HDDs than last week and 22 more than normal. Natural gas consumption in the residential and commercial sector in the Pacific Northwest rose 57% (0.2 Bcf/d). High natural gas inventories in the Pacific Northwest, lower consumption for electric power generation since the end of April, and increased natural gas imports from Canada in the first five months of 2024 compared with the same period a year ago are contributing to low natural gas prices at Northwest Sumas, which are among the lowest in North America currently. 
• International futures prices: International natural gas futures prices increased this report week. According to Bloomberg Finance, L.P., weekly average front-month futures prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes in East Asia increased $1.04/MMBtu to a weekly average of $11.50/MMBtu. Natural gas futures for delivery at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands increased 69 cents to a weekly average of $10.20/MMBtu. In the same week last year (week ending May 24, 2023), the prices were $9.73/MMBtu in East Asia and $9.27/MMBtu at TTF. 
• Natural gas plant liquids (NGPL) prices: The natural gas plant liquids composite price at Mont Belvieu, Texas, rose by 18 cents/MMBtu, averaging $6.96/MMBtu for the week ending May 22. Ethane prices rose 8% week over week, while weekly average natural gas prices at the Houston Ship Channel increased 21%, narrowing the ethane premium to natural gas by 10%. The ethylene spot price rose 1% week over week, and the ethylene premium to ethane decreased 3%. Propane prices increased 1%, while Brent crude oil prices remained relatively unchanged week over week. The propane discount to crude oil decreased 1% for the week. Normal butane and natural gasoline prices rose 2%, while isobutane prices remained relatively unchanged. 

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Supply and Demand

• Supply: According to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights, the average total supply of natural gas rose by 0.4% (0.4 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week. Dry natural gas production grew by 0.1% (0.1 Bcf/d) to average 99.1 Bcf/d, and average net imports from Canada increased by 6.6% (0.4 Bcf/d) from last week. 
• Demand: Total U.S. consumption of natural gas fell by 0.6% (0.4 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. In the residential and commercial sector, consumption declined by 23.1% (2.9 Bcf/d) week over week as temperatures moderated across much of the country. Natural gas consumed for power generation rose by 9.0% (2.9 Bcf/d) and industrial sector consumption decreased by 1.6% (0.4 Bcf/d). Natural gas exports to Mexico decreased 0.5% (less than 0.1 Bcf/d). Natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export facilities (LNG pipeline receipts) increased less than 0.1 Bcf/d this week to an average of 12.8 Bcf/d. 

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Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)

• Pipeline receipts: Average natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export terminals increased less than 0.1 Bcf/d from last week to 12.8 Bcf/d, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Louisiana increased by 1.7% (0.1 Bcf/d) to 7.5 Bcf/d, while natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Texas decreased 2.4% (0.1 Bcf/d) to 4.0 Bcf/d. Natural gas deliveries to terminals outside the Gulf Coast increased 0.5 % (less than 0.1 Bcf/d) to 1.2 Bcf/d.
• Vessels departing U.S. ports: Twenty-three LNG vessels (seven from Sabine Pass; five from Freeport; four from Corpus Christi; two each from Calcasieu Pass, Cameron, and Elba Island; and one from Cove Point) with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 84 Bcf departed the United States between May 16 and May 22, according to shipping data provided by Bloomberg Finance, L.P.

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Rig Count

• According to Baker Hughes, for the week ending Tuesday, May 14, the natural gas rig count was unchanged from a week ago at 103 rigs; the Haynesville added 1 rig and the Permian dropped 1 rig. The number of oil-directed rigs increased by 1 rig from a week ago to 497 rigs. The Ardmore Woodford added two rigs and four rigs were added among unidentified producing regions. The Granite Wash dropped two rigs, and the Eagle Ford, the Permian, and the Mississippian each dropped one rig. The total rig count, which includes 4 miscellaneous rigs, now stands at 604 rigs, 116 fewer rigs than last year at this time.

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Storage

• Net injections into storage totaled 78 Bcf for the week ending May 17, compared with the five-year (2019–2023) average net injections of 92 Bcf and last year's net injections of 97 Bcf during the same week. Working natural gas stocks totaled 2,711 Bcf, which is 606 Bcf (29%) more than the five-year average and 402 Bcf (17%) more than last year at this time. 
• According to The Desk survey of natural gas analysts, estimates of the weekly net change to working natural gas stocks ranged from net injections of 77 Bcf to 94 Bcf, with a median estimate of 84 Bcf.
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