JPM keeping Neutral target, raises PT by 21% / EPS by 30%+We are updating our Bombardier model following its Q1 report and subsequent investor day. We are gaining confidence in the outlook for adj EBITDA and FCF and so our estimates are up modestly as a result, though some of this is now reflected in the stock. Mgmt’s aim to create a business jet OEM with steady deliveries and low investment is interesting, with implications for cash deployment and valuation that we will further explore.
• Equity view. We rate the BBD/B equity Neutral. The company is executing well and demand is holding up. While we do see potential upside from here, we also see the stock as vulnerable to any sense of decelerating top-line momentum and we’re still thinking through the implications of Bombardier’s product strategy, given the competitive landscape. We are raising our Dec 2024 price target to C$91, which is 7.0x our 2025 adj. EBITDA estimate of ~$1.6b.
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"vulnerable to any sense of decelerating top-line momentum", clown show