RE:Basic math has to prevail… eventually I hope!
This has been the story of CGX sadly.
Your math is sound, however, you are missing a big value add - US $323 million of operating deficit they can use towards reducting royalities when producing. So 323M x 1.35 exchange rate = CDN $436M.
Divide that buy 336M shares - $1.29 Cdn/share
In my mind it should your 1.25 + 1.29 = 2.54 cdn / share fair value.
Sure is interesting that WCP's fair value calculation is worth about the same as the operating deficit.
Net at $1.25 / share a buyer, assuming producing hydrocarbons, would get CGX for free over time with the write off of the opperating deficit.
I believe though in our favour is to realize that benefit CGX would still need to remain as an entity.