Artis Real Estate Investment Pref Shs Series E T.AX.PR.E

RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Last post was for TJ or whoever you claim to be

[Torontojay]

EstevanOutsider wrote: not sure how influential stockhouse boards are, but i guess you never know in some of these illiquid reits. the guy writes on here non-stop about macro and now warning us to avoid "cre" citing US headline data.

we follow it very well, the only weakness is in CRE. even on the bearish St Louis FED update on CRE a couple weeks ago, it showed retail vacancies falling to pre Covid levels as nobody is building new malls. only a few years ago people were claiming retail was dead. Same situation in Canada as there are no builds in the retail space. also can't compare the two markets in terms of WEAKNESS nor can we even lump all offices or office markets together as geography matters. Artis markets are still "okay" and not getting worse. 

it's important to remember Artis is current 44% industrial which remains the hottest asset class and easily liquid as we saw with the large houston deal this year.

my math shows i can get nearly a double on artis if i write down 50% more on offices and sell everything else at nav while blanking out cominar equity and accepting only prefs. that' 50% would come after cap rate expansion as artis is valuing their portfolio just under 8%...

now imagine if rates come down and/or the market for office improves, cap rate compression comes into play and artis' already hugely discounted "nav" will be even more distorted. but that' won't last forever with a manager like manji who is willing to sell assets into the private market to close the gap.

artis is best positioned to take advantage of falling rates given their debt structure. market still sleepign on how many assets they sold and how that will impact their balance sheet.

smart money like edgepoint is taking double digit positions while self-macro guru toronto jay is warning us all that the worst is yet to come for "CRE...."

take your pick. lol. 

oh, and dont forget the new 300 main complex which adds $10m noi to artis' income statements in the coming year or so too.... a $200 million residential asset coming online is very meaningful on a reit with a $800 million market cap

DZtrader wrote:
Hey Este, nice to hear from you, even if it had to be in response to TJ's weak arguments. I am not sure what rock this idiot crawled out from under but surely doesn't know what he is talking about. One would think if you are going to be that opinionated you at least would be a little more well informed. Could be that he is spamming boards with his nonsense. I have shown him to be incorrect and inaccurate a number of times and when confronted he changes the subject or just doesn't own it. Lets not forget this is the same guy who famously suggested that rate cuts are not accomodative and thus not to be taken too seriously.....................................same level as Rumpled4forskin for value. Take care man.

You're taking a page out of Joe Biden's book because you're pretty good at manipulating the data in your favour. Joe Biden would be proud of you. 

You said retail vacancies are falling and below pre-pandemic levels but then why are property values down 6% for the year and 18% from its peak? That doesn't make any sense. The truth regarding vacancies in Cre's is that it is rising but at a decelerating pace. Stop twisting the truth to suit your bias agenda. You sound like a liberal politician. 

You also said you can't lump the US and Canada together as geography matters. Ok, but just to let you know the work from home movement is not just a US phenomenon. I think it's fair to say, I can lump Canada with the US and conclude that office vacancies are still above pre-pandemic levels and property values are still below it.  The math is simple. Capisco paesano? 

Stocks mean revert and Reits are no exception. My argument is that sentiment can remain weak for many more years until there are clear signs that property values are rising. A pivot in interest rates is certainly bullish in the long run but not necessarily bullish over the next 12 months.