RE:Payoff Great question.
My comment from memory, I most likely said " about" or " close to"
The math is actually simple.
$ 1 billion, divided by number of shares.
dropping a lot of zeros ( billion has a lot of them)
math as follows
$1000/ 76 = $13.15
The 76 is rounded up from the investor presentation number of 75.853 million shares.
i said about $12ps being on the conservative side. Also was from memory.
Even @ 80 million shares, the number is still above $12ps...again my number was an off hand estimate.
BTW, all numbers in USD assuming a buyout would be offered in USD.
so that $12-$13ps/ billion would be in usd.
For those who yammer on about, dillution and " no pharma would pay $12 for a $1.20, stock etc.
First the dillution part. Back in the depth of 2016/17. Onc had a market cap of under $50 million.
Now closer to $100million, even at these dismal SP.
The only time SP actually matters is
1. if you are buying or selling.
2. A buyout would be based on value if company, divided by number of shares.
look under investopedia. " valuation of start up biotechs"
informative read.
Bottom line.
The aquiring company is looking at medium & longer term business potential for the aquired assets.
Resd the information front to back, back to front.
The trading S.P. Is not mentioned , nore part of any calculations.
Roche for example?
Would be looking at not only potential annual sales/ income from Pela, but also upside sales of tecentriq as a co- therapy.
Additionlly the extension of existing drug patents as a newly issued therapy.
And.....beyond existing MBc & Panc & anal other possible markets.
A buyout if Onc , would include its carry forward tax loss that the aquiring company can use against income.
granted, as explained in investopedia, there are various ways to arrive at " present value" calculations of " potential future income".
Most significant being time weighted discount.
in English. Doubt = discount.
The further out the calculations are in time, the larger discount is applied to the " present corporate value".
It was stated by Matt @ a fireside chat, around 2017,..." any offers to even be considered need to start with a B"
At that time & long gone from the web site were a few comparables, indicating Onc was worth a Billion ++
Since then & as noteable has pointed out, the market comparables. All in excess of a few billions & offering less than Onc.
Now, SP movement?
The volume has been extreamly low.
everyone is is wait & see mode.
The data & FDA reports & solid structure of phase 3, will create interest.
Almost forgot.
assuming phase 3 MBc gets underway.
That will also work for the inplace partnership withb A.N.
Triggering milestone payments.
The aquiring pharma, would have that as part of calculations as well.
imho
The most significant & SP moving milestone will be the FDA type C meeting report.
That, will set the table for phase 3.
also, give the potential partners more to chew on & less doubt...
They said Q2, leaving a few weeks.
I dont think any B.D. Announcement will happen until after the FDA report.
There could be mutiple negotiations going on. Or none. We don't know.
regadless of how many, The $$$ value would hinge on what the FDA will be allowed as inclusions of the phase 3. Mbc