My model using 25k boed plus announced additions to reservesHas a terminal value in 2034 of greater then $2b. Key assumptions:
1) Use management revised remediation estimates
2) Assume we do not benefit from tax restructuring (conservative)
3) Production stays flat at 25k (through infill drilling) until 2030
4) decline rate post 2030 of 20 percent.
5) remediation and shutdown 2033-2038.
In my mind this means an acquisition in the area (Chevron) will happen before the end of 2025 , with a combination of cash and stock issued to Chevron , (like the Statoil/athabasca deal). If for remediation purposes they can combine assets then terminal date will extend on above, Also with this acquisition much more likely to be able to utilize tax losses stuck in seperate vehicle. I am sure there is a hotline open between the parties. The question is will Chevron be patient with the VLE stock or seek a secondary distribution. Note to Roger make sure any deal with Chevron has a staged release and Stock is locked up for at least two years .....will be able to buy it back from balance sheet.
As always just my thoughts not to be construed as investment advice , the acquisition of Chevron assets is purely speculative.....but VLE has an oar in the water .