The story hasn't changed The headwinds are still there, the executive team hasn't disbanded, the employees are happy. The workers are unionized and reached a work agreement with ADF for 5 years starting Dec. 2023. The facilities seem well maintained. The backlog is healthy, money is coming in. Share count just decreased, debt is low relative to cash. There seems to be no risk of work shortage. There's potential for a big contracts to come, like phase 3 of the Eli Lilly factory, given past company execution. The management is transparent and prudent even when things are going well.
There's almost no analyst coverage on the stock despite a huge run-up, this stock still seems under the radar.
A risk for this company could be high taxation rates, as the Canadian government punishes individual financial success and innovation. Although unlikely, it can push innovative and successful companies like ADF across the border. It's a family-owned business, I doubt that will happen.
I'm relatively new to investing. Been in this stock since August 2023, saw some nice gains since then. Whenever there's a dip in price, like the dip in mid March 2024 or the current dip, this forum gets more active, maybe from people getting a bit worried. I'll admit, seeing the price go from 20$ to 15$ in a week, I can't say it doesn't affect me at all, it's my human side acting up. But the story hasn't changed. Only the share price has.
I can't find another stronger growth story than this company which seems to be low risk given all the factors mentioned above. Also I love investing in a company based in the province I live in, that's my emotional side. Makes me feel like I'm a part of their journey. No one can predict the future for ADF stock, the market will decide what it's worth. At least typing these posts helps us clarify our thoughts to stay the course.