RE:A fool and his money are soon parted....
metalhead666 wrote: Here and on CEO.CA is a case study proving that "hope" is not a good investment thesis. You were enamored with drill results, some legend about Ewans prowess, the price of gold hitting a record etc all while ignoring the actual facts and arithmetic.
Drill results mean nothing without context. That's what feasibility studies are all about. Got any? Nope. Any idea what it's going to cost to mine an ounce? Nope. Got any idea of the actual capex to get the big oven retooled? Nope. Got any idea how much capex required to tet to actual mining at any of the projects? Nope. Got any idea of what the ultimate share count will be? Nope. Got any idea about final permits, water in the mines, a JV, continuing drilling costs, loan repayments etc etc? Nope.
For every actual profitable mine there are 100 that will never earn a dime. It's the worst possible business there is. Go read Taylor Darts "analysis" of gold mines....every single one has an excuse as to why they missed earnings, saw cost over runs, mined lower than expected grades, had a landslide, flood, strike, protest, legal entanglement or some other problem that destroyed his original thesis for endless glory.
If you're down 50% you need a double just to break even. If you rode this all the way down to new all time lows you have no business handling money. If you only glazed over at drill holes, disregarding all the warning signs from massive shorting to the EQX share overhang then you have no business handling money.
No one is ever going to ignite a gold miner rally from yesteryear...not with AI tech, crypto digital gold, bloated markets and dysfunctional financial systems
Gold mining is, was and will remain the worst possible place to risk money. There are no "experts" or "gurus" only salesman like Sprott and Rule and the newsletter writers who've done nothing but lose money despite the metal at all time highs.....
The only thing gold miners mine is shareholders and bagholders. They pay themselves absurd amounts of money and all you're ever going to get is the shaft
The tone is a bit ominous, but very real and the people need to hear it.
Your breakdown on how I-80 has gotten to where it is now is also spot on, along with the reality of those who have bought on the hype and rode this down.
That said I have opened a position myself in the last month or so as I believe the skys are clearing and some of the reasons you mentioned for the fall will start to get rectified. That said it's not a heavy position at all because of the risks you pointed out and I'm ok with it going to $0...
People who have fallin in this trap here or multiple times should bookmark that post and re-read that checklist every time you look at a Developer or an Explorer.