TSX:AX.PR.E - Post by User
Post by
Torontojayon Jun 27, 2024 6:07pm
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Post# 36109840
Us hiring
Us hiring Is down 5.2% y/y and below pre pandemic level by ~ 6%. This is not consistent with a strong labour market but rather a weak one. Total quits are also trending below pre-pandemic levels which tells me that people are trying to secure their jobs and that jobs are no longer plentiful as they once were. Finally, the job openings to unemployed ratio has come down significantly which tells me that wage inflation will begin to moderate. As of May, there are 6.649 millions Americans that are unemployed and 8.059 million job postings. I personally prefer to look at total hires versus job postings as I think most postings never get filled.
The US has not been able to bring down inflation because the economy has not entered a recession yet. Although the unemployment rate is begininning to rise, the US would need to see more unemployed and total job positions/hires to decline. This will bring down wages and overall inflation. I do see a finish line in the fight on inflation but until the money supply comes into better balance (currently $1 trillion above trend) then inflation is going to take some time to get under control.